Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 7/15/21
As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Claddaugh’s Run and Come Storming, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 10/1 and 15/1
Race 4 is a Starter Allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The numberFire data projects Kemba (5/1) and Mopolka (8/1) to challenge for the win with favorite Ocean Air (7/2) to hit the board.
Kemba is 1-for-10 and finished second in her 2021 debut in May. Mopolka won in May with a solid 93 speed rating at this level. Alpha Babe (101/) came home in a fast 23.2 seconds last race and could challenge for EPO trainer Rob Atras.
Top Race Reports likes the value and opportunity of the two inside horses, Claddagh’s Run (10/1) and Come Storming (15/1). Claddagh’s Run has won 3-of-4 starts this year and enters off a pair of wins over the deeper turf course at Tampa Bay Downs. Come Storming needed her last race for conditioning and now shortens up and will make a move from mid-pack.
Five Alarm Robin and Positive Skew, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 12/1 and 12/1
Race 6 is a Claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf. The turf course is softer in the early going of the Saratoga summer meet, and Five Alarm Robin (12/1) can make her 2021 debut a winning one and finish in the money, according to Top Race Reports. Trainer Gary Sciacca passed on recent races at Belmont to run here, and she won over this track and distance at Saratoga last summer.
Kitten by the Sea (2/1) is the favorite and top pick by numberFire’s data, followed by Two Cent Tootsie (5/1). Kitten by the Sea is 0-for-2 at Saratoga for trainer Todd Pletcher, and she’s failed to win five races since breaking her maiden in February 2020. However, she’s more competitive at this level.
Don’t discount Positive Skew (12/1) as a board hitter along the rail, according to Top Race Report. A better effort and pace projection to succeed is expected with leading jockey Jose Ortiz riding.
Happy Soul and Cartel Queen, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5 and 12/1
Race 9 is the $150,000 Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes for 2-year-old fillies sprinting 6 furlongs. After the heavy favorite Golden Pal (1/2) wins the Quick Call Stakes in Race 8, another favorite, Happy Soul (8/5), will be tough to beat in Race 9, according to numberFire’s algorithm.
Happy Soul has John Velazquez riding, and she possesses efficient movement and nice action, according to ECHR. Mainstay (7/2) is numberFire’s second choice, and she won her debut race last month as the favorite.
Cartel Queen (12/1) is working super off a big maiden win last race, and she adds blinkers with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. looking for a good break from the far outside post.
Velvet Sister (8/1) was a $500k purchase and sired by Bernardini. She had an easy win on debut last month and can be included in exacta and trifecta wagering with top stretch rider Joel Rosario aboard for trainer Steve Asmussen