Ellis Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 8/15/21
Starting at 1:50 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Ellis Park. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing.
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Carribean Caper and Minute Waltz, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and 2/1
Race 5 is the $100K Runhappy Audubon Oaks for three-year-old fillies going 7 furlongs. The favorite and top pick of numberFire is Carribean Caper (9/5). She’s undefeated in three starts and has won all of them by big margins.
The meet's top jockey, Brian Hernandez, Jr. rides the main challenger, Magic Quest (2/1). She is 2-for-2 at the distance with a win over the track last month, going wire-to-wire and cruising by three lengths over Minute Waltz (9/2).
Super Stock and Colonel Bowman, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and 6/1
Race 7 is the $200K Runhappy Ellis Park Derby for three-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet race notes suggest Colonel Bowman (6/1) can pull the upset based on his top last-race speed figure (99) when pressing the pace to win an Allowance race. He moves up in class for EPO trainer Brad Cox to face numberFire’s projected winner, Super Stock (9/5), who is an accomplished stakes runner and winner for record-breaking trainer Steve Asmussen. Super Stock won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby but was a non-factor in the Kentucky Derby. He finished a disappointing fourth in the recent Iowa Derby at 2/1 odds.
Sermononthemount (5/2) is a contender dropping in class, and Starrininmydreams (3/1) is winless in five graded stakes starts this year with a best finish of third at Keeneland. Both are projected to hit the board, according to numberFire's model.
Josie and Lady Kate, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 4/1
Race 8 is the $100K Groupie Doll Stakes for fillies and mares at 1 mile. The odds at FanDuel Racing favor numberFire's top pick, Lady Kate (4/1), who won this race last year and then finished second in a Grade 1 race. She races for the first time since missing the board in April, and Horse Racing Radar adds that she has won 4-of-6 at this 1-mile distance.
Dreamalildreamofu (3/1) missed as the favorite last race for trainer Brad Cox, and she is a major contender again, according to numberFire’s data. Josie (5/1) is 3-for-4 this year with a win last month and best-ever speed figure of 101. Go-to jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides for trainer Steve Asmussen.
