Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday 8/27/21
As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
A Bit o’Irish Sass and Coffee Bar, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 5/1
Race 7 is the Fleet Indian Stakes for New York-bred three-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles. numberFire's model projects Make Mischief (8/5) to win with Irad Ortiz in the irons in front of Betsy Blue (4/1) and Coffee Bar (5/1).
Make Mischief is clearly the horse to beat as she drops into the New York-bred ranks for the first time since winning the a stakes race earlier this year. She’s the class of the field, but this race stretches to two turns, which she has done only once before and missed the money in that one. Horse Racing Radar notes Make Mischief is winless at Saratoga with three runner-up finishes in four starts at the Spa. There is no value to bet on her to win at this price, but there are other ways to include her -- like exacta, trifecta or horizontal wagering.
Betsy Blue is more of a miler, and she returns quickly having raced last weekend. She has finished in the money in all eight of her starts, and Jose Ortiz rides. Coffee Bar was the heavy race favorite last time out and came up short, likely needing the race.
A Bit o’Irish Sass (6/1) has been steadily improving and won the New York Oaks. She stretched out last race and won comfortably, and she offers some value with leading jockey Luis Saez likely moving her toward the front early.
City Man and Rinaldi, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 7/5
Race 8 is the West Point Stakes for state-breds at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf. There are eight runners, and the numberFire algorithm likes City Man (9/2) to beat the favorite, Rinaldi (7/5).
Luis Saez rides Rinaldi, who won the West Point Stakes last year and is 4-for-5 at Saratoga, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. He’ll likely be running along the lead and has a pace advantage.
City Man has strong stretch rider Joel Rosario up for top trainer Christophe Clement. He won’t be compromised by less pace and should run better after a pair of tough trips in two recent races.
Mo Ready (6/1) ran the top speed figure of this field in his last race when finishing as the runner-up, and top West Coast jockey Flavien Prat rides for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher.
It's a Gamble and Bobby Bo, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 12/1 and 2/1
Race 9 is the feature Albany Stakes for state-bred three-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles. Americanrevolution (9/5) is the favorite and the top pick of numberFire -- with a pair of longshots projected to hit the board in It’s a Gamble (12/1) and It’s Gravy (15/1).
Americanrevolution won easily last race against a weaker group and is 2-for-2 at Saratoga. He makes his fourth start and is sired by Constitution.
It’s a Gamble breaks from the rail just inside the favorite. He’s more experienced, has shown speed and makes his eighth straight stakes start with Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez riding.
Bobby Bo (2/1) will draw interest with Flavien Prat riding for trainer Bob Baffert. Guaranteed Tip Sheet likes his chances shipping in from Del Mar after breaking his maiden easily last start. Bobby Bo should be running along the lead, dictating pace and trying to hold up going a longer distance.