Your 2022 Kentucky Derby Favorite: Zandon
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.
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As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Morning Line Odds: 3/1
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Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat, Zandon was installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite in post No. 10 by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The pari-mutuel wagering morning line favorite has gone to post as the favorite in 10 of the last 12 Derbys.
Zandon won the Blue Grass Stakes in his final Derby prep, and his off-the-pace ride may set up well in the longer 1 1/4 mile Derby with more pace pressers in the 2022 Run for the Roses.
His recent workout over the Churchill Downs track was stellar. Zandon does meet some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. His best Beyer Speed Figure is 98, and his best BRIS Speed Rating is 103.
History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. And 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.