2022 Breeders' Futurity Betting Odds and Contenders Preview
The most promising two-year-olds in the country will stretch out to two turns on Saturday for the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland! The 1 1/16-mile race offers a $600,000 purse and an automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for the winner, and an overflow field has lined up. A maximum of 14 horses can run, though the field also contains two horses on the also-eligible list.
Keep on reading to find out more about the field, see the trends among recent winners, and find out how to watch and bet on the race online!
Breeders' Futurity 2022 Information
Race: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Post Time: 5:14 p.m. Eastern time
Distance: one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt
Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
Where to Bet: TVG.com and FanDuel Racing
Breeders' Futurity Odds
Keeneland drew the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity on Wednesday, October 5 and assigned a morning line the next day. The morning line should provide some clues about betting action. However, with this being a full field of emerging racehorses, the betting action can vary significantly based on how horses appear, or what analysis comes out from influential handicappers.
This is the field for the Breeders’ Futurity in post-position order, including trainers, jockeys, and morning lines.
|1||Frosted Departure||Kenneth McPeek||Brian Hernandez, Jr.||10-1|
|2||Loggins||Brad Cox||Florent Geroux||4-1|
|3||Honed||Kenneth McPeek||Julien Leparoux||12-1|
|4||Confidence Game||Keith Desormeaux||James Graham||50-1|
|5||Instant Coffee||Brad Cox||Luis Saez||5-1|
|6||Bourbon Bash||D. Wayne Lukas||Rafael Bejarano||20-1|
|7||Forte||Todd Pletcher||Irad Ortiz, Jr.||3-1|
|8||Newgate||Bob Baffert||John Velazquez||20-1|
|9||Funtastic Again||Wesley Ward||Joel Rosario||15-1|
|10||Lost Ark||Todd Pletcher||Flavien Prat||6-1|
|11||Red Route One||Steve Asmussen||Ricardo Santana, Jr.||20-1|
|12||Good Heart||Brendan Walsh||Tyler Gaffalione||20-1|
|13||Two Phil's||Larry Rivelli||Jareth Loveberry||30-1|
|14||Powerful||Steve Asmussen||Jose Ortiz||20-1|
|15 (AE)||Carmel Road||Bob Baffert||Luis Saez||5-1|
|16 (AE)||Jin Tong||Doug O'Neill||Paco Lopez||50-1|
Horse racing is a game of information, and the latest updates can help make sure you make the smartest bets in the Breeders’ Futurity and races all year long. On FanDuel TV, you can track the odds to make sure you are getting the right price on horses you are interested in. FanDuel TV reporters also provide up-to-the-minute, on-site information and analysis that will help you explain the betting action and make the best wagers possible!
Breeders' Futurity Prep Results
The field is split about evenly between horses who come out of stakes races and horses who are wading into stakes company for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Three horses come out of the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs. Though winner Curly Jack does not return for the Breeders’ Futurity, second-placed Honed comes back, along with fifth-place confidence game. Jin Tong, relegated to the also-eligible list, was a well-beaten eighth in that race as well.
Forte is the only horse coming into the Breeders’ Futurity off a graded win; he won the Hopeful (G1) last out. Bourbon Bash, who ran a well-beaten fifth after a tough start in the Hopeful, also appears in the Breeders’ Futurity. Keep in mind that the Hopeful was franked when third-place Blazing Sevens came back to win the Champagne (G1).
Two other runners come into this race off of wins in minor stakes. Lost Ark has won both his starts by daylight, including the Sapling at Monmouth last out. Two Phil’s romped in the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury last out. The other horse coming out of a stakes race is Newgate, who tried the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last out but flattened to fourth behind stablemate Cave Rock.
Among the last-out maiden winners, two come from two-turn races. Funtastic Again beat an off-turf field at Saratoga going a mile. Carmel Road beat dirt horses at Del Mar going a mile, though he has to draw in from the AE list to get a chance in this race. Loggins, Instant Coffee, and Powerful all broke their maidens in dirt sprints before coming to this race. Good Heart and Red Route One both captured turf mile maidens at Kentucky Downs: Good Heart did so on debut, while Red Route one won second-out.
Frosted Departure is the only one who comes out of an allowance effort. He was fourth in the Ellis Park Juvenile, moved to N2L company at Churchill for a confidence-builder, and won wire to wire.
Breeders' Futurity Contenders
Frosted Departure: With four starts, he is the most experienced horse in the field. However, he has yet to go two turns yet, and he has yet to prove himself in stakes company yet. He has some pedigree to suggest this two-turn distance should be fine. However, he may need some luck given that he is drawn on the rail in a full field, and he will probably have company up front.
Loggins: He has raced just once, but that debut was strong: a stalk-and-pounce debut maiden win last month at Churchill Downs. He has pedigree on both sides to support the stretch out to two turns, and he posted a sharp maintenance work between that maiden win and this Grade 1 return. Don’t take too short a price because of the inside post and the experience gap, but he has upside.
Honed: His maiden win was modest, a victory at Ellis in a four-horse, off-turf field. However, he proved he belonged in the Iroquois, rallying to finish a good second at 54.18-1 odds. He needs to move forward again, but there are signs he can. He should get a sharp prace to rally into this time around, and the fact that he is second off a freshening and making his second two-turn start also give him a way forward.
Confidence Game: With three starts he is one of the more seasoned horses in the field. However, his one two-turn start was less than exciting, a flattening fifth in the Iroquois last month. Sure, maybe it is a maturity issue: he is bred for two turns, being by Candy Ride out of a Bernardini half to Zenyatta, so time and distance could move him up. But, this may be too much, too soon.
Instant Coffee: The likely “B” entrant from the Brad Cox barn behind Loggins, he looked promising on debut, rallying from midpack to capture a seven-furlong maiden special at Saratoga. And, like his stablemate, he has posted a sharp maintenance drill since then. The ability to pass horses is a positive, he has some distance in his pedigree, and Cox does tend to move horses up first-time route.
Bourbon Bash: He impressed two back at Saratoga, breaking his maiden by eight lengths, wire to wire. However, things went wrong in the sloppy Hopeful: he steadied at the start, didn’t make the lead, and finished a weakening fifth. Dry conditions should suit him better in this, but he will also have other speed to contend with up front.
Forte: The only Grade 1 winner in the field, Forte rebounded from a disappointing fourth in the Sanford (G3) to shine in a sloppy Hopeful. However, his debut maiden win came on dry dirt, meaning he does not necessarily need the slop. His pedigree leaves open a lot of chance to improve with distance and seasoning. And, he has proven that he has tactical speed and can pass horses. He will be the favorite, but he would be no surprise.
Newgate: Expectations were high for this $850,000 son of Into Mischief, and he romped on debut. However, he disappointed in the Del Mar Futurity, finishing a well-beaten fourth behind stablemate Cave Rock. There is enough in his pedigree to suggest this middle-distance trip may be fine, though his company gets deeper here (even though he does not have to face Cave Rock again.)
Funtastic Again: Turf was originally the plan for this son of Funtastic, but he broke his maiden at a mile on dirt and now sticks to the main track. He will have to prove he does not need to make the lead to win, or that he can go faster early than he did last time. Trainer Wesley Ward does well with horses who broke their maidens last out, but he is more dominant in juvenile sprints than routes.
Lost Ark: This Todd Pletcher trainee is perfect in two starts and steps up to graded company for the first time. He showed two different running styles in his two wins as well: he disputed the pace on debut, but rallied from midfield when stretching to a mile second-out. Being a Violence half to Nest and Idol, the extra distance should not hurt at all, meaning he has plenty of upside.
Red Route One: He needed his debut in a turf route at Saratoga, but that got him fit enough to graduate second-out at Kentucky Downs in stalk-and-pounce fashion. Even with that, he has a lot to prove in the Breeders’ Futurity: he has to handle dirt, and he needs a significant rise in his speed figures to get the job done.
Good Heart: He impressed in his only start, but conditions are much different this time: he debuted at a mile on the lawn at Kentucky Downs, and now he faces stakes horses on dirt. To be fair, his sire Good Samaritan handled both turf and dirt very well and his female family offers graded class on both turf and dirt. But, he has to prove it himself, plus show he can either go faster up front or pass horses to win.
Two Phil’s: Unlike many Larry Rivelli horses, he needed his debut, though some trip trouble may have explained the loss there. He has won his next two starts, a sprint maiden at Colonial and then stakes at Canterbury. Now he stretches out to two turns. It isn’t strange for Rivelli to run in a two-turn Kentucky stakes with a juvenile, as he has won the Iroquois a few times. At least Two Phil’s has proven he can stalk, but also, he has never faced company this tough.
Powerful: He missed by a head-on debut but got up to win by a hard-fought half-length in a maiden September 3 at Saratoga. The race has been franked, with the second- and third-place finishers, each winning next out. His pedigree appeals to the stretch out to two turns, and he has shown some tactical speed. However, this post is a recipe for ground loss, and may require him to be used early for position.
Carmel Road: Carmel Road needs one scratch to get in off of the also-eligible list. If he does, however, he is probably the Baffert “A.” He does only come out of a maiden win, but he woke up nicely trying a route for the first time. He has to prove that he can face winners and the post will be a challenge, but he is going the right way.
Jin Tong: Jin Tong needs two scratches to get in off of the also-eligible list. He graduated on debut at Los Alamitos back in July, though two Grade 3 starts since then have been disappointing. Trainer Doug O’Neill does well with blinkers on, though he would have to stretch out to a route from a very difficult gate if he gets in.
Breeders' Futurity Past Winners Past Performances
Five of the last ten winners of the Breeders’ Futurity, including the last three, came into the race out of maiden special weight victories. The only one of those to come out of a two-turn victory was Rattle N Roll (2021), who broke his maiden third-out going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill. Two others won the Breeders’ Futurity off of one-turn mile maiden wins at Churchill, Brody’s Cause (2015) and Maxfield (2019). The others, Carpe Diem (2014) and Essential Quality (2020), came out of debut maiden wins at conventional sprint trips.
Three recent Breeders’ Futurity winners came out of stakes races on dirt, though none of them actually won. Free Drop Billy (2017) finished second in the Hopeful; Classic Empire (2016) also came out of the Hopeful but he lost his rider at the start. Before Knicks Go (2018) upset the Breeders’ Futurity, he had finished third in the now-defunct Arlington-Washington Futurity; he is the only winner of the last ten years to come in from a race on a synthetic footing.
Two of the last ten winners last raced on grass. Both Joha (2012) and We Miss Artie (2013) had last raced in the With Anticipation (G2) at Saratoga before winning the Breeders’ Futurity. However, that was when Keeneland still had polytrack and not dirt on their main track. All of the recent winners of the Breeders’ Futurity since Keeneland switched back to dirt last raced on a dirt surface.
Breeders’ Futurity Undercard
The Breeders’ Futurity is the ninth of 11 races on Keeneland’s Fall Stars Saturday, a thrilling card that features five graded events. Those other graded races include the Woodford (G2) for turf sprinters, the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) for filly and mare sprinters, the First Lady (G1) for turf mares, and the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) for open turf milers. With big fields, huge purses, and excellent horses all day long, it is an excellent time to tune into FanDuel TV and place your bets!
Keeneland Race Track
Keeneland is located in the heart of horse country in Lexington, Kentucky. The Keeneland Association opened the facility in 1936, and the site features both a top-class racetrack as well as a sales pavilion. The track has run meets in April and October since then, though ran the April meet in July of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keeneland hosted its first Breeders’ Cup in 2015, and held it again in 2020 without spectators. Open to the public once again, the track will host its third Breeders’ Cup in 2022.
The main track covers just over a mile on the dirt. There is a seven-furlong chute extending from the backstretch, known as the Beard Course. Keeneland also has a four-and-a-half-furlong chute, the Headley Course, off the far turn. The dirt course surrounds a seven-and-a-half-furlong turf course. The track uses two different turf configurations: the Keeneland course, with a rail 15 feet out, and the Haggin Course, with no temporary turf rail.
Breeders' Futurity FAQ
Q: When is the Breeders' Futurity?
A: Saturday, October 8, 2022, at 5:14 p.m. Eastern time.
Q: Where is the Breeders' Futurity?
A: It takes place at Keeneland Race Track in Lexington, Kentucky.
Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Breeders' Futurity?
A: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has the most wins in the Breeders' Futurity with six, most recently in 2004 with Consolidator. Lukas returns to the fray in 2022 with likely longshot Bourbon Bash.
Q: Who is the favorite for the Breeders' Futurity?
A: Forte has been named the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Breeders’ Futurity. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and both of his career wins have been impressive, meaning that he is actually likely to be favored.
Q: Who is the best Breeders' Futurity jockey?
A: Don Brumfield won the Breeders’ Futurity five times between 1969 and 1979, the most of any jockey to date. Among those riding in the 2022 edition, John Velazquez and Rafael Bejarano have both won twice. Velazquez has the call on Newgate; Bejarano rides Bourbon Bash.
Q: Who won the Breeders' Futurity in 2021?
A: Rattle N Roll won the 2021 Breeders’ Futurity for trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. They unite behind Frosted Departure in this year’s edition. McPeek also trains Honed.