MISC

Australian Open Third Round Betting Guide: Thursday 1/19/23

The first tennis Grand Slam of 2023 is already upon us! The third round of the Australian Open begins on Thursday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Which matches offer the most betting value?

Danielle Collins (+116) over Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina may be the reigning Wimbledon champion, but I'm siding with the underdog tonight -- who just so happens to be last year's Australian Open runner-up.

The Australian Open has been Danielle Collins' best slam by far in her career, boasting a 15-5 record here across four appearances in the main draw and reaching the semifinals in 2019 and the finals in 2022. Hard courts are easily her best surface, too, as she's amassed a 22-10 record over the last 52 weeks.

Despite being favored, Ryabakina is actually the lower-ranked and lower-seeded player, and her hard-court record over the last 52 weeks isn't quite as strong (21-17).

Rybakina and Collins have split their head-to-head matches, though, and they faced one another earlier this month, with Rybakina earning the victory in three sets.

Rybakina has one of the tour's best serves, with her 10.2% ace rate on hard courts ranking second among the top 50 players, per Tennis Abstract. She's also had a much easier time advancing thus far, racking up two straight-sets wins, whereas Collins has needed to grind out a pair of lengthy three-setters.

No doubt, there are some clear risks in going against Rybakina, but there's still value in backing Collins at these odds. The American's overall resume over the past 52 weeks gives her the slight edge in Elo rating, per Tennis Abstract, leading to a projected 55.5% win probability. That compares quite favorably to the mere 46.3% implied win odds at these +116.

Hubert Hurkacz (-108) over Denis Shapovalov

Jumping over to the men's side, we have another even matchup, and oddsmakers have this as a virtual coin flip. However, the data suggests that No. 10 seed Hubert Hurkacz may not be getting enough credit over No. 20 seed Denis Shapovalov.

The 25-year-old Hurkacz has totaled just a 2-4 record at this tournament previously, but he could be poised for better results moving forward. He's logged a 28-17 hard-court record over the last 52 weeks, and he performed fairly well at the United Cup prior to this event. In the multi-country team event, Hurkacz went 2-2, but his losses were narrow ones against Matteo Berrettini (three sets) and Taylor Fritz (two tiebreaks), both top-20 opponents.

Shapovalov is never an easy out, as he's posted a 30-19 record on hard courts over his last 52 weeks, and most of his recent losses have also come against tough competition.

That being said, it's the Polish player who has gotten the better of the head-to-head matchups, winning three of four matches on hard courts. Hurkacz also possesses a lethal serve on hard courts at an 18.3% ace rate, the fifth-best mark among the top 50, which gives him a huge leg up if he's dialed in.

According to Tennis Abstract, Hurkacz has a 59.9% chance of victory, which would mean he should be closer to a -150 favorite.

Sebastian Korda (+390) over Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev is the second-biggest favorite to win the tournament behind Novak Djokovic, so don't go emptying the bankroll here. But American Sebastian Korda might be able to make some noise in this one.

Korda is fresh off a fantastic run at Adelaide 1, working his way through to the finals with wins over Andy Murray, Roberto Bautista Agut, Jannik Sinner, and Yoshihito Nishioka before falling to eventual champion Djokovic in three sets. Three of those four wins came against players who are seeded at this Australian Open.

And it's not like that was an isolated deep tournament run, as Korda also reached the finals at Antwerp and Gijon toward the end of last year. Dating back to October 2022, he's now gone 14-4 on hard courts, and his four losses have come against top-25 opponents. Over the last 52 weeks, he's gone 31-16 on the surface overall.

Does that mean he can pull off the upset? That remains to be seen, but his play has earned him a respectable 37.8% shot of winning, according to Tennis Abstract. At +390 (20.4% implied win odds), he could be worth taking a chance on.

If you're more risk averse, then a safer option like Daniil Medvedev Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+128) is another possibility while still getting plus odds. Medvedev won their lone meeting in 2021, a three-setter on hard courts at Paris.