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Australian Open Third Round Betting Guide: Friday 1/20/23

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Jan 20th, 2023
American Ben Shelton has been a great story in the first week of the Australian Open. Can he advance past the third round?

The first tennis Grand Slam of 2023 is already upon us! The third round of the Australian Open continues on Friday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we find the most betting value tonight?

Ben Shelton (+118) over Alexei Popyrin

We backed feel-good story Ben Shelton a couple of nights ago, and he rewarded us by winning in straight sets. Maybe it's foolish to run it back with so inexperienced again, but we should like his chances against wild card Alexei Popyrin.

As a refresher, Shelton was still at the University of Florida this time last year, but after winning the NCAA singles title, he went pro and has been on the fast track up the rankings ever since. He finished the second half of last season reaching six different Challengers finals and won half of them, compiling a fantastic 35-8 record at that level. Additionally, at the ATP level, he flashed some potential by earning a top-10 win over Casper Ruud.

He's faced some adversity in both of his first round matches -- going five sets with Zhizhen Zhang and winning two tiebreaks against Nicholas Jarry -- but he won over 80% of his first serve points in both rounds and only faced one break point against Jarry.

Popyrin is coming off a massive upset win over No. 8 seed Taylor Fritz, who was one of the favorites to win the tournament. While that might seem dicey for Shelton, the Australian has now endured back-to-back five-setters and nearly eight and a half hours of court time. Additionally, this could be a classic letdown spot for Popyrin, going from one of the biggest wins of his career to facing an unknown like Shelton.

Although Popyrin is off to a promising start to 2023 -- he also earned a top-10 win over Felix Auger-Aliassime earlier this month -- he's coming off a disastrous 2022 where he went 5-17 in tour-level matches. The 23-year-old also has a losing record on hard courts over his young career with just a 42.9% win percentage.

It's entirely possible that Popyrin has turned the corner following the offseason, but a couple of big wins won't erase a checkered resume just yet. Based on Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Shelton is getting a 72.8% win probability tonight. The implied win odds at +118 are just 45.9%, so even if we were to bump Shelton's projection down, this still looks like a value spot to side with the American.