Australian Open Men's Final Betting Guide
The first tennis Grand Slam of 2023 wraps up this weekend with two fantastic matchups. The men's final of the Australian Open is set for 3:30 am ET on Sunday morning, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we find the most betting value tonight?
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic -5.5 Games (-130)
Over 37.5 Total Match Games (-110)
I'm not sure if there's anyone on the planet who can beat Novak Djokovic right now, and it says something when he's a -550 favorite over the No. 4 player in the world, Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Djokovic has dropped one set all tournament -- ironically coming against a qualifier in the second round -- but that almost certainly had more to do with a hamstring issue and an unusual situation with a heckler than anything else. Since that match, he's seen little resistance over the last four matches, and he's been especially dominant over the last three, defeating all of Alex De Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Tommy Paul in 27 total match games or fewer.
He's now 11-0 this season, and including this tournament, he's lost just one match over his last six hard courts tournaments dating back to last September. Put another way, he's now made six straight finals and won four of those first five entering Sunday. Obviously, Grand Slams are a different best, but this is Djokovic we're talking about -- you know, the guy who's won the Australian Open nine times.
Statistically, Djokovic is checking all the boxes in 2023, as well, winning 81.4% first-serve points, 57.1% second-serve points, and 43.5% return points, all of which are elite marks. He's even posted a 10.0% ace rate, which is 2.8 percentage points above his career average (7.2%).
That's a whole lot of love for one of the greatest of all time. But we shouldn't discount his opponent completely.
While I'm not sure Tsitsipas will have enough to pull off the upset, he might be able to at least make Djokovic uncomfortable. Tsitsipas is also undefeated this year (10-0), and he's been particularly effective with his serve, logging a 12.2% ace rate and winning 77.4% first-serve points and 57.9% second-serve points. He hasn't been in the same league as Djokovic in the return game, winning just 36.2% of those points, but that's right around his career average.
Where things get dicey for Tsitsipas is the head-to-head record. Djokovic has won 10 of their 12 meetings, including 9 in a row. However, Tsitsipas did take Djokovic to three sets at Paris in their second-to-last matchup and most recently lost a tight two-setter at the ATP Finals 6-4, 7-6. Perhaps most importantly, they've met twice at a Grand Slam, and while both were on clay at the French Open, those matches each went five sets.
According to Tennis Abstract, Djokovic comfortably has the highest Elo rating on hard courts over the last 52 weeks -- but it's Tsitsipas who checks in at third. This being Djokovic, there are still 100-plus points separating their surface-blended ratings, which leaves Djokovic with a hefty 68.9% win probability. But that mark also comes well short of his implied win odds (84.6%) as a -550 favorite.
This suggests that the match could be closer than expected, which is why over 37.5 total match games is a logical way to attack this spot, as these two will almost certainly fly over that if this goes four sets.
But everything still points to Djokovic prevailing, and that's where we can get a little more bang for our buck by siding with him to cover the 5.5-game spread. Barring a true shocker, expect Djoker to win his 22nd career Grand Slam title, pulling even with Rafael Nadal for the most all-time.