4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/18/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Justin Verlander OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Justin Verlander comes in as one of the best pitchers on the slate, but should we be looking at his strikeout prop tonight as a betting option?
Verlander has a strikeout prop of 8.5 tonight and is up against the Cincinnati Reds, who have a 24.2% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth worst in the league. Verlander is carrying a 32.8% strikeout rate, which is the best among any pitcher in action tonight, and he has eight or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts.
He is coming off of a 15 strikeout performance last week against the Milwaukee Brewers and this Reds lineup shouldn't pose too much of a threat for him tonight. There is very little juice on the over tonight, which puts us in a great spot to simply bet on what Verlander does best, strike hitters out.
Clayton Kershaw OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
A 6.5 strikeout prop for Clayton Kershaw tonight seems a bit too low, does that mean it's going to be the bet of the night?
Kershaw is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and has a super soft matchup versus the San Francisco Giants tonight, a team he has dominated over the course of his career. According to Baseball Reference, Kershaw has 330.1 innings pitched in his career versus the Giants, with a total of 373 strikeouts, good for 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Amazing numbers as you would expect from the future Hall of Famer and things shouldn't be any different tonight with the Giants holding a 24.0% strikeout rate this season versus left-handed pitchers. Our projections have Kershaw going for 6.48 strikeouts tonight, just, a bit shy of the 6.5. Bet on the talent, bet on the historic success and cash the over tonight.
Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+330)
That higher implied run total is due to the fact the Baltimore Orioles have Gabriel Ynoa on the mound tonight and he comes in with a 4.91 xFIP, 2.04 homers per nine, and a low 14.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He simply isn't a good pitcher and we want to attack him with a hitter like Matt Chapman, who is currently projected as the second most likely hitter to hit a home run tonight.
Chapman is crushing the ball against righty pitchers this season, especially at home, with a .408 wOBA, .283 ISO, and a 44.4% hard-hit rate. All of those numbers put him in a perfect spot to cash in on this juicy home run prop at great odds.
Josh Bell To Hit a Home Run (+500)
Josh Bell is currently projected as our 13th most likely hitter to go deep tonight and his +500 odds are too good to pass up.
Bell is on pace for his best season in the majors and is completely obliterating the ball, as he is near the top of the charts for average exit velocity, numbers of hard-hit balls, hard-hit percentage, and the number of barreled balls, according to Baseball Savant. He is crushing it this season, no pun intended, and with those numbers, he lines up perfectly against Daniel Norris, who is allowing a 42.2% hard-hit rate, a 33.1% fly-ball rate, and 1.43 homers per nine innings to righty hitters this season.
Bell and his .270 ISO versus left-handed pitchers is amazing and with the +500 odds on a home run tonight, you are getting one of the best hitters in the league at a super favorable price point.