MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/24/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 7:02 p.m. EST.
Whew -- what a pitching slate this is.
In terms of ceiling/floor combination, the convo starts and ends with Max Scherzer ($12,200) at home versus the Miami Marlins. I won't insult you by explaining to you why Scherzer could feast today. But I will say that he will likely come with immense ownership. We have a few other high-ceiling arms on the slate, though none can touch Scherzer's floor.
Trevor Bauer ($11,400) could post a big score at home versus the San Diego Padres. San Diego has some pop and will be aided by a massive park boost in Cincy, but the Padres also love to swing and miss -- finishing 2019 with a 26.3% strikeout rate, the second-highest in baseball. Bauer took a step back pretty much across the board last year. With that said, he still generated punchouts with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging-strike rate.
While Clayton Kershaw ($10,000) against the Cleveland Indians and Lance Lynn ($9,000) at the Kansas City Royals are both appealing, the other guy I am into today is James Paxton ($8,700) at home versus the Seattle Mariners.
We all know the drill with Paxton, but there's no denying the upside he possesses when he's healthy. Well, virtual Paxton is healthy, and this is a guy who spun a 29.4% strikeout rate and 14.1% swinging-strike rate in 150 2/3 frames last year. The matchup gives him a boost, as well, as his former team posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) a year ago. For me, if I'm not using Scherzer, I'll be on Paxton.
Like yesterday, there's a Coors game on the slate, and I'm not going to dive into it. If you can get exposure to Coors, especially to the Colorado Rockies, you want to do it for today's pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Jake Arrieta.
Across 78 2/3 MLB innings last season, Miami's Jordan Yamamoto gave up a 48.0% hard-hit rate and 43.1% fly-ball rate. We want to stack against that, and the Washington Nationals have some cheap bats -- something we'll need today with all the good high-priced hurlers.
Victor Robles ($3,000) and Adam Eaton ($2,700) are hitting 1-2, while Eric Thames ($2,800) is in the five hole. Of course, if you can afford them, Trea Turner ($3,900) and Juan Soto ($3,500), who are in the three and four spots, should eat, too. And don't overlook Starlin Castro ($2,400), who is hitting sixth.
The Houston Astros mash southpaws, and they get a Fenway Park date with Brian Johnson. In 2019, Johnson struggled his way to a 16.1% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and 42.4% hard-hit rate. You want some Astros today. As usual, they're pricey, but that's where Paxton's salary comes in handy.
George Springer ($3,900), Jose Altuve ($4,000), Alex Bregman ($4,000) and Carlos Correa ($3,800) are hitting 1-2-4-5. Lefty Michael Brantley ($3,200) gets you cheaper exposure to the heart of the lineup, and he had a 42.0% hard-hit rate in lefty-lefty matchups last year. You can also get low-cost access to this lineup through Yulieski Gurriel ($2,800).
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.