MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/27/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Maybe you can't quite fill that sports void in your heart, but FanDuel has been coming up with new contests to keep us entertained during these strange times.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:02 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (R) | $12,000 | OAK | 2.95 | 35.4 % | 5.0 % | 22.8 % | 109 |
| Yu Darvish (R) | $10,800 | MIA | 3.55 | 31.3 % | 7.7 % | 24.4 % | 95 |
| Zac Gallen (R) | $9,500 | @SDP | 4.24 | 28.7 % | 10.8 % | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) | $9,300 | @TAM | 3.77 | 22.5 % | 3.3 % | 27.1 % | 99 |
| Tyler Glasnow (R) | $9,100 | TOR | 3.18 | 33.0 % | 6.1 % | 25.2 % | 85 |
| Chris Paddack (R) | $8,800 | ARI | 3.83 | 26.9 % | 5.5 % | 21.8 % | 96 |
| Brandon Woodruff (R) | $8,500 | SFG | 3.60 | 29.0 % | 6.1 % | 24.0 % | 89 |
| Caleb Smith (L) | $7,900 | @CHC | 4.58 | 26.0 % | 9.3 % | 24.5 % | 94 |
| Frankie Montas (R) | $7,400 | @HOU | 3.76 | 26.1 % | 5.8 % | 16.3 % | 129 |
| Mike Foltynewicz (R) | $7,000 | STL | 4.71 | 21.4 % | 7.5 % | 23.6 % | 94 |
| Dakota Hudson (R) | $6,800 | @ATL | 5.06 | 18.0 % | 11.3 % | 22.4 % | 100 |
| Anibal Sanchez (R) | $6,700 | @TEX | 5.07 | 18.8 % | 8.2 % | 25.5 % | 89 |
| Nathan Eovaldi (R) | $6,500 | KAN | 5.33 | 21.6 % | 12.9 % | 22.1 % | 93 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (L) | $6,400 | @DET | 5.17 | 16.1 % | 6.9 % | 24.9 % | 98 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | $6,300 | @BOS | 4.89 | 20.7 % | 8.3 % | 19.7 % | 112 |
| Michael Fulmer (R) | $6,200 | SEA | -- | -- | -- | 25.9 % | 88 |
| Andrew Suarez (L) | $6,100 | @MIL | 6.47 | 14.3 % | 14.3 % | 20.7 % | 102 |
| Jordan Lyles (R) | $6,000 | WAS | 4.53 | 24.4 % | 9.2 % | 21.5 % | 96 |
| Alex Wood (L) | $5,700 | @COL | 4.67 | 19.6 % | 5.9 % | 24.1 % | 98 |
| Antonio Senzatela (R) | $5,500 | LOS | 5.50 | 13.1 % | 9.8 % | 20.2 % | 122 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander ($12,000) has a tougher matchup against Oakland, but you know he always has the chance to steamroll the opposition, and no one has more strikeout upside on the slate.
Yu Darvish ($10,800) and Tyler Glasnow ($9,100) also boast strikeout rates above 30%, though, and both have easier matchups than Verlander against the Marlins and Blue Jays, respectively. They're fantastic alternatives to Verlander if you're not too keen on paying that exorbitant salary.
Brandon Woodruff ($8,500) is also worth considering as one of the better mid-range values. The Giants are pushovers at the plate, and Woodruff's 2019 peripherals are within striking distance of the aforementioned trio. That said, note that he's projected for some regression, suggesting slightly less upside compared to the other top options.
Stacks
The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela. You know what to do -- if you can afford them. Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, and Mookie Betts are all priced at $4,000 or higher. Corey Seager ($3,700) is slightly cheaper, and Will Smith ($3,500) is the top value of the lineup.
The Colorado Rockies are naturally in play on the other side against left-hander Alex Wood. They, too, are priced up, though not nearly to the same extent. Nolan Arenado ($4,400) and Trevor Story ($4,300) are way up there, but Ian Desmond ($3,300) and Daniel Murphy ($3,300) offer some more palatable salaries. Murphy has typically performed well against lefties in recent years.
If you're looking to escape Coors Field inflation, the Washington Nationals (versus Jordan Lyles) and Boston Red Sox (versus Danny Duffy) are other stacking options. Both Lyles and Duffy project as below-average pitchers in 2020.
Juan Soto ($3,900) and Trea Turner ($3,800) are top choices on the Nats, and Eric Thames ($2,900) is a stellar value out of the five hole.
Meanwhile, the Sox are affordable across the board, with J.D. Martinez ($3,400) looking like a steal, and Xander Bogaerts ($3,100) and Michael Chavis ($2,900) both coming cheap. Kevin Pillar ($2,100) is barely above the minimum, too.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
