MLB Sim Sports Picks for 5/29/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:02 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Note: Taijuan Walker only pitched one inning in 2019, so his numbers aren't listed.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray (L) | $9,700 | DET | 4.02 | 31.5% | 11.2% | 24.9 % | 98 |
| German Marquez (R) | $9,300 | @SFG | 3.85 | 24.3% | 4.9% | 24.0 % | 89 |
| Cole Hamels (L) | $9,000 | @SEA | 4.55 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 23.4 % | 106 |
| Joey Lucchesi (L) | $8,800 | MIA | 4.48 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 24.9 % | 82 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. (R) | $8,600 | BOS | -- | -- | -- | 19.9 % | 105 |
| Mike Minor (L) | $8,400 | OAK | 4.51 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 19.9 % | 114 |
| James Paxton (L) | $8,100 | @LAA | 3.93 | 29.4% | 8.7% | 19.8 % | 102 |
| Joe Musgrove (R) | $7,800 | @STL | 4.32 | 21.9% | 5.5% | 23.6 % | 94 |
| Julio Teheran (R) | $7,600 | NYY | 5.11 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 23.4 % | 119 |
| Jeff Samardzija (R) | $7,300 | COL | 4.92 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 22.5 % | 86 |
| Kenta Maeda (R) | $7,100 | @CWS | 4.22 | 26.2% | 8.4% | 25.6 % | 107 |
| Adam Wainwright (R) | $6,800 | PIT | 4.70 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 20.1 % | 94 |
| Ivan Nova (R) | $6,500 | @ARI | 5.16 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 21.8 % | 96 |
| Mike Fiers (R) | $6,400 | @TEX | 5.19 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 25.5 % | 89 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (R) | $6,300 | MIN | 4.88 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 20.9 % | 119 |
| Jordan Yamamoto (R) | $6,200 | @SDP | 4.71 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Taijuan Walker (R) | $6,000 | ATL | -- | -- | -- | 22.4 % | 100 |
| Brian Johnson (L) | $5,500 | @HOU | 5.92 | 13.9% | 10.2% | 15.9 % | 137 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
This is an unusual pitching slate, as every pitcher is priced below $10,000 this evening.
Robbie Ray ($9,700) is the cream of the crop in this case, besting the field in strikeout rate while getting a plum matchup against Detroit.
German Marquez ($9,300), Cole Hamels ($9,000), and Joey Lucchesi ($8,800) don't bring as much firepower to the table, but they'll benefit from desirable spots against the lowly Giants, Mariners, and Marlins, respectively. As noted in prior helpers, Seattle's wRC+ versus lefties seems flukey for such a weak overall lineup, and they're starting five left-handed batters tonight.
Lance McCullers Jr. ($8,600) tends to be priced up in these sims, so he could be worth a shot at this price point versus the Red Sox. It's not a great matchup, but McCullers' 2020 projections can go toe to toe with anyone else here.
Kenta Maeda ($7,100) has solid peripherals across the board, arguably making him the top value play against the White Sox.
Stacks
The Oakland Athletics are facing Mike Minor at Texas, and the assumption is the simulation still views the virtual venue as favorable to hitters based on the old Globe Life Park. Minor put up pedestrian peripherals in 2019, and his projections expect more of the same with potentially fewer punchouts.
Pretty much the entire Oakland lineup is in play, with guys like Khris Davis ($3,200), Ramon Laureano ($3,000), and Mark Canha ($2,900) looking like strong values. Minor owned only marginally better peripherals versus lefty sticks, so don't rule out using Matt Olson ($3,500), either. Sean Murphy ($2,100) showed nice power between the big leagues and Triple-A last season.
You can also flip to the other side with the Texas Rangers against Mike Fiers. Although Fiers had respectable real-life results last year, it wasn't backed up by his lackluster peripherals, and 2020 projections are pessimistic.
Joey Gallo ($4,000) is always a good starting point when stacking Texas, and Rougned Odor ($2,500), Willie Calhoun ($2,500), and Todd Frazier ($2,400) can help you fit him in.
The Minnesota Twins are always fun to stack, and that's certainly the case against the likes of Reynaldo Lopez. The right-hander's projections fall right in line with his poor 2019 marks, which included giving up a boatload of home runs. All the usual Twins stars should be under consideration, with Nelson Cruz ($3,100) in particularly being criminally underpriced.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
