MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/4/20 on FanDuel
Do you miss Major League Baseball? Yeah, we do, too.
Enter MLB Sim Sports, a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:02 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Note: Garrett Richards only made three starts in 2019.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler (R) | $11,500 | COL | 3.50 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 22.5 % | 86 |
| Aaron Nola (R) | $10,800 | @MIA | 4.14 | 26.9% | 9.4% | 24.4 % | 95 |
| Stephen Strasburg (R) | $10,600 | NYM | 3.49 | 29.9% | 6.7% | 21.5 % | 109 |
| Lance Lynn (R) | $9,700 | @TOR | 3.83 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 25.2 % | 85 |
| Luis Castillo (R) | $9,000 | CHC | 3.95 | 28.9% | 10.1% | 23.5 % | 108 |
| Jon Gray (R) | $8,300 | @LOS | 4.28 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 20.2 % | 122 |
| Jose Quintana (L) | $7,900 | @CIN | 4.55 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 22.8 % | 102 |
| Joe Musgrove (R) | $7,700 | STL | 4.32 | 21.9% | 5.5% | 23.6 % | 94 |
| Marcus Stroman (R) | $7,600 | @WAS | 4.41 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 21.5 % | 96 |
| Kevin Gausman (R) | $7,300 | SDP | 4.41 | 23.6% | 7.3% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Dylan Bundy (R) | $7,100 | @MIN | 4.54 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 20.9 % | 119 |
| Garrett Richards (R) | $7,000 | @SFG | 4.93 | 26.8% | 14.6% | 24.0 % | 89 |
| Chase Anderson (R) | $6,900 | TEX | 5.00 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 25.5 % | 89 |
| Mike Fiers (R) | $6,800 | DET | 5.19 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 25.6 % | 82 |
| Jordan Yamamoto (R) | $6,600 | PHI | 4.71 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 24.5 % | 90 |
| Adam Wainwright (R) | $6,400 | @PIT | 4.70 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 20.1 % | 94 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (R) | $6,300 | @KAN | 4.88 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 22.1 % | 93 |
| Brad Keller (R) | $6,200 | CWS | 5.23 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 25.6 % | 107 |
| Ivan Nova (R) | $6,000 | @OAK | 5.16 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 22.8 % | 109 |
| Homer Bailey (R) | $5,800 | LAA | 4.60 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 20.3 % | 109 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Walker Buehler ($11,500) is the obvious choice at pitcher tonight, owning elite numbers and taking on a Rockies team that struggles on the road.
At a slight discount, Aaron Nola ($10,800) also stands out in a plum spot against Miami in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. All five pitchers priced at $9,000 and above could put up big scores, but Buehler and Nola have the easiest paths to success, making them worth the extra cash.
The bargain bin isn't overly exciting, but Joe Musgrove ($7,700) and Kevin Gausman ($7,300) are worth considering in their respective matchups against the Cardinals and Padres. They both project as roughly league-average pitchers in 2020, per FanGraphs, so don't expect amazing ceilings, but they could pay off at these salaries.
Stacks
The Minnesota Twins pop tonight against Dylan Bundy, who's been long known for giving up dingers at a high rate and coughed up 1.61 home runs per 9 innings in 2019. Season-long projections expect more of the same, so the sim figures to see things very much the same, as well.
You won't have much trouble fitting in the Twins, either, with Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, and Mitch Garver all priced between $3,600 and $3,000.
Of course, the Los Angeles Angels could very well have the last say in this matchup, as they could also pile up the runs against Homer Bailey. While Bailey's numbers weren't completely egregious last season, after years of poor results, most projections peg him for an ERA over 5.00.
Mike Trout ($4,500) is uber-expensive per usual, as are Anthony Rendon ($4,000) and Shohei Ohtani ($3,800). Justin Upton ($3,300) is reasonably priced, though, and Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Brian Goodwin ($2,100) can help you fit in those pricey sticks.
The Oakland Athletics should also perform well in their matchup against Ivan Nova, who posted easily the worst 2019 strikeout rate of tonight's starters. Most of Oakland's lineup is fairly affordable, including sluggers Matt Olson ($3,500) and Khris Davis ($2,700).
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
