MLB Sim Sports Picks for 7/6/20 on FanDuel
Real-life MLB DFS will be back in our lives at the end of July, so in the meantime, why not get some reps in with FanDuel's simulated contests?
MLB Sim Sports is a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom (R) | $12,000 | SDP | 3.29 | 31.7% | 5.5% | 25.0 % | 88 |
| Matthew Boyd (L) | $9,700 | @LAA | 3.61 | 30.2% | 6.4% | 19.8 % | 102 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | $9,000 | TOR | 4.31 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 24.7 % | 94 |
| Chris Paddack (R) | $8,800 | @NYM | 3.83 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 21.5 % | 109 |
| Julio Teheran (R) | $8,400 | DET | 5.11 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 25.6 % | 82 |
| Mike Soroka (R) | $8,000 | PIT | 4.28 | 20.3% | 5.9% | 20.1 % | 94 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) | $7,800 | @BOS | 3.77 | 22.5% | 3.3% | 19.7 % | 112 |
| John Means (L) | $7,300 | @SEA | 5.19 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 23.4 % | 106 |
| Jake Odorizzi (R) | $7,000 | KAN | 4.14 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 22.1 % | 93 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (L) | $6,700 | BAL | 5.17 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 21.0 % | 98 |
| Madison Bumgarner (L) | $6,500 | @COL | 4.15 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 24.1 % | 98 |
| Danny Duffy (L) | $6,300 | @MIN | 4.89 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 20.4 % | 123 |
| Mitch Keller (R) | $6,000 | @ATL | 3.78 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 22.4 % | 100 |
| Jeff Hoffman (R) | $5,500 | ARI | 5.11 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 21.8 % | 96 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on the slate.
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom ($12,000) is the night's top pitcher, and it's not particularly close. Against a Padres lineup that strikes out aplenty, deGrom is well worth his high salary even on a Coors Field slate.
Paying down is tricky on the smaller offering, but Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,000) has some potential versus the Blue Jays. The up-and-comers on Toronto likely make this more dangerous than last year's marks would suggest, but E-Rod should be able to take advantage of the plus spot for punchouts.
Chris Paddack ($8,800) doesn't have an amazing matchup versus the New York Mets, but a simulated Citi Field should help keep runs off the board.
If you really want to punt the position, then Jake Odorizzi ($7,000) might be able to hang with the non-deGrom arms against the Royals. Steamer projects him for a 24.2% strikeout rate, which puts him in line with Rodriguez and Paddack's 2020 projections.
Stacks
If you aren't paying the premium for deGrom, then the Colorado Rockies are the obvious choice at Coors Field against Madison Bumgarner, who's projected to take another step back this year as a roughly league-average pitcher at best. The emphasis goes to the righties against the southpaw, but don't hesitate to use any of the usual stars in the top half of the order.
The Arizona Diamondbacks also get the Coors Field boost on the other side, and their matchup is even better. Jeff Hoffman owns a career 6.11 ERA. You don't necessarily need to break the bank to make a solid Diamondbacks stack work, either, between guys like Jake Lamb ($3,500), Kole Calhoun ($3,400), Christian Walker ($2,600), and Carson Kelly ($2,400).
The Minnesota Twins have been a frequent visitor to these parts over the summer, and they're once again in play versus a mediocre hurler in Danny Duffy. Unlike the Coors teams, all of the Twins are priced under $4k, including top home run threats Nelson Cruz ($3,500) and Miguel Sano ($3,500).
And speaking of homers, Matt Boyd may get strikeouts, but he allows dingers by the bunches, giving up 1.89 per 9 innings in 2019. Given the aforementioned alternatives, you don't necessarily need to go with a full Angels stack, but righty sticks like Mike Trout ($4,500) and Justin Upton ($3,600) are suitable one-offs.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
