MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/3/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Giants Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Giants +1.5 (-142): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Our model likes the San Francisco Giants today a lot more than oddsmakers do. The Giants are 1.5-run underdogs on the road at the Colorado Rockies, but we project them to win 54.0% of the time.
The Rox are the better overall team. Our nERD-based power rankings have Colorado 5th and San Fran 23rd. So what's going on here? It has to do with the Rockies' starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez, the owner of a 5.71 SIERA, 13.4% strikeout rate, and 11.9% walk rate across 140 1/3 career innings. Gonzalez is bad, and Coors isn't going to help. Our model has the Giants scoring a whopping 6.86 runs.
The Giants are starting Johnny Cueto. While Cueto isn't the same guy he was in his prime, he's a much better hurler than Gonzalez and has a 4.71 xFIP since the start of 2017.
We project San Francisco to win 6.86-6.28 in what should be a Coors special. With the Giants a 1.5-run underdog, you can either bet on the Giants to cover (-142) or pick them to win (+122) -- both of which are rated as two of the best bets of the night, per our algorithm.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
Cubs Moneyline (-150): 2-Star Rating out of 5
This one isn't super sexy, but betting value is betting value.
The Chicago Cubs are -150 favorites tonight at home against the Kansas City Royals. A -150 line implies win odds of 60%. Our model gives the Cubs a 66% chance to win. Again, it's not going to blow you away, but value is value.
Our power rankings have this as one of the best versus one of the worst as we rank the Cubbies 2nd and KC 27th. The Royals are already at a -14 run differential through 10 games while the Cubs sit at +10 with a 7-2 record.
Neither starting pitcher is ace material -- Danny Duffy for the Royals and Alec Mills for Chicago -- but the Cubs have the edge on the bump as Mills has pitched to a 3.80 SIERA and 27.3% strikeout rate over 63.1 MLB innings.
The Cubs should be the favorite here -- like they are -- but the line should be -194 going by our model. Take the value on a night without much of it across the MLB betting landscape.
