MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/10/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Moneyline (+136) 2-Star Rating out of 5
Atlanta +1.5 (-148) 2-Star Rating out of 5
Nola has already tallied 19 strikeouts over 11.1 innings in his first two starts, and it's been backed up by a fantastic 17.3% swinging-strike rate. That obviously doesn't bode well for the Braves, but we also shouldn't go overboard after just two outings. Nola is an excellent pitcher, but his strikeout rate has never quite reached an elite level (career 26.3% rate), so it's too early to say whether he's found a new gear.
Additionally, the Phillies' bullpen has been dreadful in 2020, so even if Nola is lights out again, that doesn't mean Atlanta will be totally out of it.
As for Newcomb, he isn't exactly off to a hot start, though most of the damage came in one of his three appearances. He's better than he's shown, though, as his 4.46 SIERA and 22.2% strikeout rate were right around league average last year.
There's risk in betting against a dialed-in pitcher like Nola, but our model gives the Atlanta moneyline a 50.03% chance of success and the Atlanta runline a 67.52% likelihood. Both rate as two-star bets.
Over 8.5 (-110) 3-Star Rating out of 5
One of our model's favorite bets is the over in tonight's contest between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. At 8.5 runs, this game is on the lower end of the slate's over/unders, and the Rangers should be able to do their part against Seattle starter Justin Dunn.
Dunn has struggled over two 2020 starts, allowing 5 earned runs and 3 homers over just 7.0 innings. If we include his four stints as an opener in 2019, he's now posted a 7.88 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 25.8% walk rate over six career appearances. It's hardly a large sample, but there isn't much to suggest the 24-year-old is ready for the big leagues -- particularly if he can't get those walks down.
On the other hand, Kyle Gibson has performed well over his two starts, and a rising strikeout rate and solid ERA estimators the past two campaigns suggested a bounce-back 2020 season could be on tap. Still, the fact remains that he's coming off a 4.84 ERA and last year's career-best 22.7% strikeout rate was hardly anything to fear.
numberFire's algorithm gives the over a 62.74% chance of hitting, making this a three-star wager.