MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/13/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore +1.5 (-108): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Baltimore Orioles have won two straight against the Philadelphia Phillies, and numberFire's model likes Baltimore's chances of giving Philadelphia a run for their money in a potential sweep today.
Eshelman is showing pretty much the same peripherals as last year over his first couple appearances, and owns a paltry 5.49 SIERA and 13.2% strikeout rate across 43.1 career innings. We shouldn't expect him to keep the Phillies off the board.
On the other hand, Arrieta boasts a 3.01 SIERA over his first couple starts with a 24.4% strikeout rate -- except those punchouts have come with a mere 5.4% swinging-strike rate. After posting middling strikeout rates below 20% in each of the last two seasons, we can probably chalk up these early returns to the small sample size.
Arrieta should put up a better fight than Eshelman, but considering he had a 4.82 SIERA in 2019, the Orioles should do their share of damage, too.
And as noted yesterday, what really swings things in Baltimore's favor is a Philadelphia bullpen that remains a major sore spot. They've been lit up for a league-worst 9.63 ERA while allowing a whopping 2.58 home runs per 9 innings. Some poor luck has factored in (.416 BABIP), but they still have the league's 3rd-worst FIP and 10th-worst xFIP.
Our model gives the Orioles runline a 62.34% chance of success for a three-star rating.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+100): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Really, this one is pretty straightforward. The Tampa Bay Rays are starting Tyler Glasnow, who is arguably one of the league's best when he takes the mound. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox are putting their faith in Kyle Hart, who is making his MLB debut and is frankly someone you've probably never heard of.
Glasnow has struggled with walks in his first three starts but is showing his usual firepower with a 37.3% strikeout rate. In 2019, he produced a 3.18 SIERA, 33.0% strikeout rate, and a 6.1% walk rate over a dozen starts, showing his immense potential when healthy.
In comparison, Hart put up pedestrian numbers in Triple-A last year, with a 5.17 xFIP, 19.4% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate.
Glasnow's control will really have to fall apart for the Red Sox to have a chance, and even then, the Rays shouldn't have any problem teeing off on Hart. numberFire projects Tampa Bay covering 57.56% of the time for a two-star wager. The moneyline is also a two-star bet (-148) with a projected 68.12% success rate.