MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/21/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Over 9.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5

numberFire's model sees value in betting the over in tonight's Phillies-Nationals matchup, where we find Zack Wheeler and Anibal Sanchez taking the mound.

Sanchez is having a rough campaign (7.38 ERA) and has struggled to keep the ball in the park (2.11 home runs per 9.0 innings). Although he's perhaps been a bit unlucky with balls in play (.361 BABIP), his underlying numbers are uninspiring between a 5.06 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate.

The Phillies are an above-average offense against right-handed pitching this season (106 wRC+), so they should be able to do their part at the plate.

Meanwhile, Wheeler is having an excellent season (2.62 ERA), but he's also been pitching a bit over his head, as he has a more middle-of-the-road 4.11 SIERA and a rather low 16.5% strikeout rate. While we probably shouldn't expect amazing results from the Nats' bats, this isn't as rough a matchup as Wheeler's minuscule ERA would suggest.

Our model projects the under hitting just 32.49% of the time, making the over a three-star wager.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Over 9.0 (-122): 2-Star Rating out of 5

The Atlanta Braves have one of the top lineups in baseball this season, and they could pile it on against rookie lefty Trevor Rogers tonight.

Rogers has pitched better than his 6.00 ERA would indicate (3.96 SIERA) and has shown loads of promise through a 29.6% strikeout rate. However, he also has a 10.2% walk rate and has struggled with the long ball, allowing 2.14 per 9.0 innings. He's lasted only three innings in each of his last two starts, which included an especially rough outing against Philadelphia (eight earned runs).

But we don't have to rely entirely on the Braves to hit the over because the Miami Marlins ought to be able to chip in their fair share against Huascar Ynoa. The young right-hander has perhaps the worst overall numbers of tonight's starters, with a 5.39 SIERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, and 14.0% walk rate.

numberFire's algorithm projects the likelihood of the under hitting at just 35.09%, giving the over a two-star value.