MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/23/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Over 8.0 (-114): 4-Star Rating out 5
numberFire's algorithm is a big fan of taking the over in tonight's Miami-Atlanta contest, with the line set at a modest 8.0 runs.
Starters Sixto Sanchez (2.75) and Max Fried (1.96 ERA) have enjoyed successful 2020 campaigns, but neither one has overpowering strikeout numbers.
Sanchez has helped his cause with an elite 59.4% ground-ball rate, but his strikeouts have fallen off in recent starts, leaving him with a pedestrian 22.0% rate. No one is questioning the stuff -- he still has a 13.1% swinging-strike rate -- but Sanchez only turned 22-years-old in July, and this will be just his seventh MLB start. His strikeout numbers were actually somewhat underwhelming in Double-A last year, so some inconsistency is to be expected.
He held the Braves scoreless over six innings earlier this month, but he'll have a tough time repeating that feat -- Atlanta's active roster leads the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (133).
Fried should have an easier time handling the Marlins' bats, but a 4.22 SIERA suggests he's been pitching over his head. While he also benefits from a strong ground-ball rate (54.2%), his strikeout rate also isn't anything to write home about, either (22.9%).
These two are still high-quality, ground-ball pitchers, so we're not expecting a massive score tonight. But 8.0 runs is a low bar, particularly with one of the league's top offenses involved. Our model gives the over a 63.25% likelihood for a four-star bet.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating out 5
Another over that numberFire's model likes comes from the bout between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox.
Baltimore's Dean Kremer has a squeaky clean 1.69 ERA through three starts, but there are reasons to believe a course-correction is coming. His 4.41 SIERA is a good deal higher than that ERA, and a 13.8% walk rate will come back to bite him eventually. And while he's managed a stellar 30.8% strikeout rate, it's come with a more ordinary 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and he only managed a 25.0% strikeout rate over 15 Double-A starts in 2019.
Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well over two starts since returning from injury, but Boston is unlikely to push him with nothing to play for, and he only threw 76 pitches last time. The Orioles will get their opportunities against a middling Sox bullpen, so they should be able to do their part at the dish.
numberFire projects the under happening just 31.78% of the time, giving the over a three-star betting value.
