5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 4/6/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers ($6,400)
But if you want to go all-in on the high-salaried Coors bats, Freddy Peralta might be worth the risk. Peralta has demonstrated high strikeout potential, owning a career 28.7% strikeout rate as a starter. However, those punchouts have also come with a 10.7% walk rate, which is partially why he's spent much of his young career as a bullpen arm. Case in point, in his first 2021 appearance, Peralta struck out six and walks three over just two innings in relief on Opening Day.
The Chicago Cubs have a fairly high implied total against Peralta tonight, demonstrating the risks of going here. We also don't know how many innings we can realistically expect out of Peralta, particularly if walks are an issue. Still, this is a mighty low salary for someone with an elite strikeout rate.
Josh Rojas, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,000)
It's almost doesn't matter what the matchup is -- if you can get a leadoff hitter for $3,000 at Coors Field, you don't question it. Josh Rojas has hit leadoff against right-handers so far this season, so we should expect him atop the lineup against German Marquez.
Marquez is no pushover, but he had a shaky 2021 debut at home versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, walking six batters over four innings while striking out just two. Although he only allowed one run (with a little help from a flukey play on a Cody Bellinger home run), that's not exactly a recipe for success. Marquez should be better than this, but if he's out of sorts again, the Arizona Diamondbacks could make him pay. Arizona has the highest implied total of the slate.
Marquez has a modest strikeout rate versus lefty sticks, which should help Rojas reach base.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays ($3,000)
Honestly, I could practically list the entire Toronto Blue Jays lineup here, as they have every bat has a salary of $3,300 or below tonight. The Texas Rangers are expected to use Dane Dunning and Wes Benjamin as a tandem, meaning we can be less concerned about Dunning's stronger splits versus righties. Toronto's implied total is up to 4.97, making it one of the better ones on the board.
We'll highlight Bo Bichette specifically here, as he should bat third and produced an encouraging 12.5% barrel rate in 2020. He owns a .233 ISO so far in his young career.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets ($2,900)
We ought to see Brandon Nimmo batting leadoff versus right-hander Chase Anderson, giving us another high-order bat with a low salary in a good spot. Anderson actually tends to give up more dingers to right-handed bats, but it's not like he squashes lefties, posting a 4.46 xFIP against them in 2020 and 5.19 the year before.
Nimmo is more known for his ability to get on base than anything else (16.5% walk rate the past two seasons), but he's underrated as a hitter, owning a career 133 wRC+.
Mike Brosseau, 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,100)
With a lefty on the mound, we could see Mike Brosseau in the lineup, giving us a potential salary-saver at just $100 above the minimum. Perez is no stranger to DFS stacks, having posted a SIERA over 5.00 in five straight seasons. Over the past two campaigns, Perez owns a 4.88 xFIP, 18.2% strikeout rate, and 10.0% walk rate against right-handed batters.
Brosseau strikes out too often, but he has enough pop to make us interested, as he boasts a career 43.2% hard-hit rate and 42.2% fly-ball rate.