MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 4/8/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Over 9.0 (-105): 4-Star Rating out of 5
According to our model, this is the best bet of the day.
The pitching matchup pits Eduardo Rodriguez versus Matt Harvey. Across 76 innings since the start of 2019, Harvey owns an ugly 5.59 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate. E-Rod is a fine pitcher, sporting a career SIERA of 4.15, but today will be his first start since 2019.
The Baltimore Orioles plated 18 runs across three games in a sweep of the Boston Red Sox last week. Boston, meanwhile, is coming off a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays in which they scored a total of 26 runs.
We project there to be a total of 10.93 runs scored in this game and have the over hitting 59.9% of the time. With over 9.0 listed at -105, we give the bet a four-star rating.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Over 11.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Neither the Arizona Diamondbacks nor Colorado Rockies are supposed to be all that good offensively this season. But the combination of Merrill Kelly and Jon Gray pitching at Coors Field pushes us to the over here, even at a gaudy total of 11.0.
Gray was good in his first start of the year, which came at Coors, limiting the potent Los Angeles Dodgers to one earned run in five innings. Our projections don't have this outing going that way as we forecast Gray to permit 3.66 runs in 5.57 frames this afternoon against the Rox.
Kelly went four innings against a good San Diego Padres offense in his debut, allowing three runs. Our algorithm has him surrendering 3.55 runs in 5.78 innings.
In all, we see 12.54 runs being scored in this one, and we think the over hits 57.9% of the time.
Oakland A's at Houston Astros
Oakland +1.5 (-154): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Well, it hasn't been a good start to the season for the Oakland Athletics. They're 0-6 and have lost five games by at least four runs. But Oakland is a solid team, one that went 36-24 last season and 97-65 in 2019. They'll pick it up eventually, and our model has them winning today.
Oakland will send Cole Irvin to the hill while the Houston Astros counter with Cristian Javier. Irvin has mostly been a reliever in his brief MLB career, so this should be more of a Johnny Wholestaff day for Oakland. Javier had a solid 2020 rookie campaign but did possess some worrying underlying numbers. He finished with a 3.48 ERA over 54 1/3 innings, but he also registered a 4.43 SIERA while his 8.7% swinging-strike rate hints at some negative regression for his 25.2% strikeout rate.
Oakland is a 1.5-run underdog, but we have them winning this game 53.0% of the time. Taking Oakland at +132 on the moneyline is a two-star bet, per our model, while betting on the A's to cover 1.5 runs is a three-star wager. We give Oakland a 70.2% chance to cover the 1.5 runline.
