MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 4/15/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Over 8.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5

There isn't much betting value on tonight's slate. Per our algorithm, there is only a single bet with more than a one-star rating (as of Thursday morning), and you're about to read about it.

Our model likes the over in this clash between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. The pitching matchup gives us Merrill Kelly versus Patrick Corbin.

Corbin took a big step back last year across his 65 2/3 innings, with his strikeout rate falling 8.2 percentage points -- down to 20.3%. He gave up a 37.8% hard-hit rate and had a 4.42 SIERA. He's now posted SIERAs of 4.42 and 3.88 in the two campaigns following his breakout 2018 season in which he recorded a 2.91 SIERA. Even if Corbin throws well tonight, he probably won't be in the game too long as he lasted only 80 pitches in his lone 2021 outing. The Nats' bullpen has a 5.05 ERA so far this year, so the more of them we see, the better the chances for the over.

As for Kelly, he was improved in 2020 from what he produced as a rookie, but his 2020 was only 31 1/3 frames. In 224 2/3 career innings, Kelly owns a 4.65 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate while allowing a 43.0% hard-hit rate. Washington lefties like Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber should give him fits today.

We have Washington winning this game by a score of 5.38-4.88. That's a total of 10.26 runs -- well over the line of 8.5. This is by far the top bet of the day, according to our projections, and we think the over hits 64.8% of the time.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 7.5 (-118): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Dodgers -1.5 (-125): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best offenses in the game -- maybe the best -- and they get face southpaw Austin Gomber, who is not very good. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.

Gomber has pitched to a 4.83 SIERA over 113 1/3 career innings. We have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he hurled more than 30 frames in a season, and he finished that campaign with a 40.7% hard-hit rate allowed and 20.1% strikeout rate in 75 innings.

The Dodgers -- who rank first in wOBA (.378) -- will likely pack their lineup with right-handed hitters, which should mean Gomber will see the likes of Mookie Betts, Justin Turner and Will Smith. And for his career, Gomber has only a 14.7% strikeout rate against lefties, so Corey Seager and Max Muncy are plenty capable of doing damage, too.

LA is countering with Julio Urias. The one-time super prospect is still only 24, and he's racked up an 11.7% swinging-strike rate since the start of 2020. The Colorado Rockies' lineup doesn't carry much of a punch, sporting a measly .285 wOBA thus far.

All signs point to the Dodgers rolling. Admittedly, I like LA tonight more than our model does. We have the Dodgers covering the 1.5 runline just 51.4% of the time, and we have the over hitting 56.2% of the time. But on a night with some tight betting lines, putting your money on one of the best teams in baseball in a fantastic matchup isn't a bad idea.