3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 4/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
April has been rough on a lot of pitchers, especially Kelly, who has just five strikeouts across two starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has been hammered, going 10 innings while allowing nine runs and two home runs.
Against Washington, things are not expected to get much better. Kelly's rate of 7.8 punchouts per nine is nothing special, and the Nats have some high-octane lefties -- namely Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell -- who could make it a short day for him.
Our projections are somewhat bullish on Kelly -- forecasting him for 4.98 strikeouts -- but I like the +100 number we're getting on the under, and I'm banking on him not lasting too long.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+290)
This kind of goes with some of what I just talked about. Kyle Schwarber could be due this evening against Kelly, who has allowed a 43.0% hard-hit rate over 224 2/3 career innings. Kelly has surrendered a 43.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters in his career.
Schwarber is having a down start to the year homer-wise with no dingers, but he does have four hits in 14 at-bats. Normally his long-ball rate is one home run every 16.1 at-bats. Last year it was one every 17.4. The home runs will come.
Schwarber is projected to hit 0.30 home runs today, which is the fifth-most of the night. I like taking a swing at +290 on the slugger to tally his first home run of 2021.
Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
One more from the Arizona-Washington clash. The number here is reasonable given the track record of Patrick Corbin. He averaged 5.9 innings per start in 2020, and he fanned 8.22 per nine innings. And that was his lowest strikeouts-per-nine rate since 2017. In 2018 and 2019, Corbin struck out 10.06 and 11.07 per nine, respectively.
Corbin has made only one start in 2021, fanning five over 4 1/3 frames. He went 80 pitches in that outing and will probably be allowed to go a bit more tonight.
Arizona is a pretty pedestrian matchup for strikeouts, but our model has Corbin at 5.59 strikeouts and 6.18 innings pitched. That cuts it close, but I side with the over.
Chris Wassel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Chris Wassel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username chriswassel. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.