3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Zach Plesac Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122)
You should look at the over on Zach Plesac's strikeouts against the Chicago White Sox this evening. The prop is set at a reasonable 5.5 punchouts, and the +122 price is enticing.
Plesac has had three starts this year. Two of them have been great, and one has been really bad. The bad one was an April 15th outing on the road at the Chicago White Sox in which he didn't get out of the first inning and was hammered for six runs.
He takes on the White Sox again today, this time at home.
Before his dismal outing at Chicago last time out, the Cleveland Indians' righty had 10 strikeouts in his first 13 innings over a pair of starts versus the Detroit Tigers. In 2020, Plesac had a 27.7% strikeout rate and fanned 9.3 per nine innings.
Our projections are rather bullish on Plesac today, forecasting him for 6.24 strikeouts, and you can get the over at a friendly price.
Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+240)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going against Seattle Mariners lefty Marco Gonzales, a pitcher who has already allowed six home runs. Gonzales -- whose average fastball velocity of 88.0 MPH is a career-low clip -- is surrendering a 39.2% hard-hit rate and should have lots of trouble with a loaded LA lineup.
Corey Seager is off to a pretty hot start with three home runs, including one last night in a lefty-lefty matchup versus Justus Sheffield. Same-sided matchups haven't been too much of a deterrent for Seager. He had a .347 wOBA, 49.1% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate against southpaws last year. Overall, Seager has a 41.2% hard-hit rate in 2021, and he had a massive 52.0% mark in 2020.
I like taking a hack today at the +240 odds for Seager to hit his fourth home run.
Julio Urias Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Let's take one more look at the Dodgers-Mariners game. Julio Urias has a friendly number for his strikeouts prop, which is around an even bet.
Urias is averaging just five strikeouts per start, but he has gone 90 and 95 pitches in his past two outings -- a good sign. And he's due for some positive regression in the strikeout department as his 12.3% swinging-strike rate tells us his 19.5% strikeout rate should be a bit higher.
Seattle owns a 26.4% strikeout rate so far, the eighth-highest, and they also had the eighth-highest strikeout rate in 2020 (25.0%).
Urias should be able to rack up some strikeouts today, and with his pitch count nearing 100, as long as he's effective, he should be able to go deep enough in the game to get to the over on this prop.
