MLB Betting Guide: Monday 4/26/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+160): 1 Star out of 5
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians are both off to slow starts this season, but the Twins will look to grab a victory here on Monday night due to having a noticeable advantage on the rubber.
Minnesota starts two-time All-Star Jose Berrios, who is off to a fast start this season with a 3.00 ERA and an even more impressive 2.14 FIP in his first four starts. Berrios is opposed by Zach Plesac, who holds a 6.75 ERA and 4.01 FIP after his first four starts.
Berrios clearly gives Minnesota an advantage, and our model gives the Twins a 50.18% likelihood of covering the 1.5 runline. Given that the odds are +160, that makes Twins -1.5 a strong betting option for Monday night.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+110): 1 Star out of 5
The Atlanta Braves should have a good chance to win this game, as they enjoy the advantage in the pitching matchup with Charlie Morton going against Zach Davies.
Morton owns a 3.91 ERA and 3.05 FIP this season, and he has had a FIP below 4.00 every season since 2015, so he has proven himself as a reliable starting pitcher. Davies is coming off a good year in 2020 over 12 starts, but he is off to a dreadful start to 2021 with an 8.80 ERA and 5.64 FIP. His WHIP is currently over 2.00, and he has more walks than strikeouts, so Davies has a lot to correct going forward.
Our model gives the Braves a 50.96% chance to cover the 1.5 runline, and at +110, we like this as a one-star betting option.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+136): 2 Stars out of 5
The Milwaukee Brewers own a massive pitching advantage in this game, as Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the Brewers. Burnes is having a phenomenal season, allowing only 1 run in 24.1 innings pitched to start the season, and he currently leads the league in FIP, WHIP, hits per nine, and walks per nine. Burnes' hot start may not be completely sustainable, but he had an amazing season last year, too, posting a 2.11 ERA and 2.03 FIP over 59.2 innings.
The Miami Marlins are starting Trevor Rogers, who is also off to a good start this season with a 1.64 ERA and 2.37 FIP, but he has much less of a track record than Burnes. Rogers had a 6.11 ERA and 4.33 FIP over seven starts last season, and he has only made 11 Major League starts to date.
Our model likes the Brewers in this one, giving them a 62.71% chance to cover the runline, making this a two-star bet.
