MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/28/21

Chris Wassel  —  @ChrisWasselDFS Apr 28th, 2021
We take a look at a few MLB props from Wednesday's late afternoon and evening games. Where can we find value?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jacob DeGrom Over 10.5 Strikeouts (-102)

The over is too good to overlook on Wednesday evening. Jacob deGrom to strike out 11 batters or more is at almost even money (-102) at home versus Boston.

The New York Mets' starting pitcher is a machine. He has struck out 14 or more batters in three consecutive outings. That brings him up to 50 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched. That works out to a K/9 rate of 15.5. His full-season rate is over 11 from 2018 and 2019. His strikeout rate has climbed and stayed above 30% the past two seasons. Last year it approached 39%.

That projects well for a good evening against a free-swinging Red Sox team. Our median projections are somewhat bearish on deGrom at just 8.65 strikeouts over six-plus innings. But that still translates well to 10-plus punchouts if he pitches seven or eight innings. Take the over -- especially if the odds stay around even money only.

Pete Alonso Home Run / Match Winner Double (+320)

The New York Mets' slugger is off to a great start and looks more like the 2019 home run hitter most expected last season. He has five home runs already in 18 games, which puts him on a pace for a 40-plus home run season. The first baseman's slugging percentage is above .500 again (.516) in the early going and rising.

Alonso is striking out more at a 31.3% rate in April, but his exit velocity is a whopping 98.6 miles per hour. His distribution of balls hit is evenly distributed at 23.8% to pull and opposite field. So, Alonso is not yanking the ball less than his first two seasons in the league.

The appeal of an Alonso blast is worth taking at these odds against Boston starter Nick Pivetta.

Clayton Kershaw Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Why not take a look at Clayton Kershaw getting even money to strike out eight batters or more on Wednesday afternoon at home versus the Cincinnati Reds?

Kershaw has been a steady influence in April. He is starting his sixth game of the month as the Los Angeles Dodgers have monitored his pitch count a bit. He has not exceeded 100 pitches in any start. The concern is that the pitcher has not struck out more than eight batters in any of his starts.

The Dodgers' veteran had a 9.5 K/9 rate in 2019 that was in line with his career 9.7 rate. Cincinnati strikes out at a rate of only 24.1%, but that number jumps up to 27.5% on the road. If Kershaw is allowed to get to the 100-plus pitch range, he should be able to get to eight punchouts -- maybe even more.

If that is not enough, Sonny Gray at +124 odds to strike out seven batters or more may be an alternative. Gray has 12 strikeouts in just eight innings pitched so far in April for the Reds.