MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 4/29/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 7.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5

The pitching matchup in this game features Trevor Bauer against Eric Lauer. I'll give you a guess at which offense we should expect to do a lot of the work toward getting us to the over. Yes, it's the Los Angeles Dodgers' lineup.

Lauer, a lefty, owns a 4.73 SIERA and 20.6% strikeout rate for his career while allowing a 40.6% hard-hit rate. He will likely be in a world of trouble today against an LA offense that carries the second-best wOBA (.332). Righties like Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, Will Smith and Chris Taylor should feast. We have the Dodgers plating 5.56 runs.

And while Bauer will probably rack up punchouts against a Milwaukee Brewers offense that holds the fourth-highest strikeout rate (27.8%), we project the Brew Crew to do a little bit a damage and get across 4.01 runs.

In all, we forecast a total of 9.57 runs in this one, which is well over the 7.5-run over/under. Our model projects the over to win out 66.7% of the time and rates it as a three-star bet.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 8.5 (-120): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Surprisingly, these two offenses have been decent so far in 2021. The Arizona Diamondbacks check in 8th in wOBA (.318), while the Colorado Rockies are 13th (.303). Both offenses have really been surging lately, sitting seventh and sixth, respectively, in wOBA over the last 14 days.

The pitching clash is a matchup between Antonio Senzatela and Luke Weaver. Neither hurler is all that good.

Senzatela has pitched to a 4.94 SIERA in 98 1/3 frames since the start of 2020, striking out just 13.5% of hitters. Weaver has been the better of the two, but he's got just a 4.41 SIERA while allowing a 43.0% hard-hit rate in that same timeframe.

Our algorithm has the D-Backs winning by a score of 5.48-4.81. That's 10.3 total runs. We project the over to hit 65.0% of the time, rating it as a three-star wager.