MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/30/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 8.5 (-105): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Phillies Runline +1.5 (-137): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Our model sees value on two lines for today's New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies game.
The pitching matchup is Marcus Stroman versus Chase Anderson, and that should lead to plenty of runs, with hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park helping out there, too. Since the start of 2019, Anderson owns a 4.74 SIERA and is allowing 1.76 homers per nine. Stroman has pitched to a 4.35 SIERA in that time and has just a 16.0% strikeout rate in the early part of 2021.
While neither of these offenses has been all that potent thus far, our algorithm has them producing tonight as we project a final score of 5.35-5.29 in favor of the Mets.
That's 10.64 total runs, which is well over the 8.5-run over/under. We have the over hitting 67.8% of the time, and we give the Phillies a 63.4% chance to cover 1.5 runs.
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Over 6.5 (-118): 4-Star Rating out of 5
White Sox Moneyline (+110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
It's scary to bet the over when Shane Bieber is on the bump, but a 6.5-run total sets the bar really low -- too low going by our numbers.
Bieber and Dallas Keuchel are getting the ball in this one.
Bieber's numbers are outstanding, but he has had a slight homer issue so far this season, allowing a 39.2% fly-ball rate and 1.24 dingers per nine. Keuchel, meanwhile, has struck out just 14.9% of hitters since the start of 2020, and he's got a 4.60 SIERA in that time. On top of that, Chicago's bullpen sports the seventh-worst ERA (4.56).
Our model projects the White Sox to win this game 4.45-4.31. That's 8.76 runs, and we have the over winning out at a 70.1% clip. There's also some value in taking Chicago to win outright. We give the White Sox win odds of 53.8% and rate them on the moneyline as a two-star bet.
