MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/6/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 9.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Braves -1.5 (+158): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Braves Moneyline (-106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out differently than oddsmakers do.
Lester isn't good, and he hasn't been for a while. In 2020, he finished with a 5.02 SIERA and 15.8% strikeout rate. Taking on an Atlanta Braves lineup with righties such as Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna, Lester should be in a lot of trouble today. Smyly, meanwhile, has a 3.53 SIERA and 30.3% strikeout rate in 45 1/3 innings since the start of 2020.
We project the Braves to win this game 6.30-4.55 and have Atlanta emerging victorious 66.0% of the time. The Braves' moneyline price is -106, which implies win odds of just 51.5%, so taking the Braves on the moneyline is a three-star bet. We also rate Atlanta on the runline and over 9.0 as three-star plays. We have the over hitting 59.3% of the time, and our algorithm projects the Braves to cover as 1.5-run favorites 55.3% of the time.
Over 7.0 (-120): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Bumgarner has been improved early on for the Arizona Diamondbacks, striking out 25.0% of hitters, but he is still giving up a ton of hard contact. In 30 2/3 innings this season, MadBum is permitting a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 44.6% fly-ball rate. Those marks were at 44.0% and 41.8%, respectively, in 2020, as well.
Lopez is good. The Miami Marlins' hurler has pitched to a 3.74 SIERA this season and owns a 3.90 SIERA dating back to the start of 2020. There are no flaws in his statistical profile, but he's up against an Arizona offense that has been surprisingly stout this season, sitting seventh in wOBA (.321).
The 7.0-run total is too low, according to our model. We project this to be a 4.85-4.29 victory for the Marlins, which amounts to a total of 9.14 runs -- well over the 7.0-run line. We give the over a 63.2% chance of hitting.