5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 5/11/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox ($8,200)
There are quite a few hurlers with high strikeout rates on tonight's slate, and most of them come with appealing salaries. Of course, there's a reason for this, as high walk rates are also a common theme among the top values.
Dylan Cease is one such player, sporting a 3.68 SIERA and 32.0% strikeout while also owning a worrying 12.0% walk rate. That said, he posted 61 and 58 FanDuel points in his last two starts, showing why we should have him in our tournament player pool.
Tonight's spot versus the Minnesota Twins is hardly ideal, but high-strikeout bats like Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano could add to Cease's tally, and at least he won't have to deal with Byron Buxton (hip). It's also encouraging that the Twins have only a 3.69 implied total.
Kyle Schwarber, OF, Washington Nationals ($2,700)
The Washington Nationals are a top stack against Chase Anderson, who hasn't had much go his way in 2021. Although the right-hander has sometimes shown reverse splits over his career, he hasn't had an answer for lefty sticks so far this season, submitting a 5.58 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 15.2% walk rate in the split. Three of four home runs he's allowed have come to left-handed bats, too.
Kyle Schwarber may have just three dingers on the year and is still striking out too often, but he has a double-digit barrel rate and a 99th percentile maximum exit velocity, so we shouldn't be too concerned about his ability to add to his home run ledger in plus matchups.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,800)
The Atlanta Braves are calling up Bryse Wilson for tonight's start, which could mean a big night at the plate for the Toronto Blue Jays. Wilson has stumbled in three 2021 starts, putting together a 5.84 SIERA, 10.7% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate, and he's yet to find much big league success in his young career with a 5.55 SIERA.
Randal Grichuk has always displayed strong power, but he's even dropped his strikeout rate to 17.6% this season, which would be a career-best if the season ended today. He's still producing a solid .197 ISO to this point, and there's room for more given his career .235 mark.
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals ($2,600)
Not only is Boyd returning from a knee injury that caused him to skip a start, but his 2.27 ERA hides otherwise lackluster peripheral marks like a 4.67 SIERA and 17.3% strikeout rate. Boyd has also given up just one home run, but that looks to be because of a minuscule 2.1% home-run-to-fly-ball rate well, which is well below his career average (13.7%).
Ultimately, this looks like a classic regression case, and the Royals have good enough righty sticks to bring that course correction for Boyd. Much like the aforementioned Schwarber, Jorge Soler hasn't quite found his groove yet, but his batted-ball metrics are promising pretty much across the board. Soler posted a massive 18.9% barrel rate in 2020 and a 16.6% clip in 2019.
Michael Brantley, OF, Houston Astros ($2,900)
Stacking against Shohei Ohtani doesn't feel great, but despite the name value and overall talent, we can't overlook a 4.99 SIERA and awful 22.6% walk rate. He's walked four or more batters in three of four starts, and while he's mostly gotten away with it, a patient Houston Astros lineup could get him into trouble. Houston actually has one of the slate's better implied totals (4.66).
Michael Brantley will have the platoon advantage out of the two-hole and could thrive in this matchup. Ohtani owns a 4.90 xFIP versus lefties this season and a 4.41 mark over his career.