MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/17/21

The San Francisco Giants are off to a hot start this season. Can they keep that going against the Reds?

Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds

San Francisco +1.5 (-178): 2 Stars out of 5

The San Francisco Giants are off to a good start this season at 24-16, and they look to continue their strong start to the season with a win against the 19-19 Cincinnati Reds on Monday night.

The Giants start Logan Webb in this contest, who owns a 4.74 ERA and 3.74 FIP this season and are facing off against Sonny Gray, who has a 3.55 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The Reds seem to have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup, but Gray's expected ERA is 4.14, and Webb's is actually 3.43, giving him one of the largest discrepancies between his ERA and expected ERA in the Majors. Gray, meanwhile, has had some ERA luck.

The Giants also should have the advantage in the bullpen where they have a 4.27 team ERA compared to 5.08 for the Reds.

Our model gives San Francisco a 70.38% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 in this game, making this a 2-star bet for Monday.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Over 7.5 Runs (-106): 4 Stars out of 5

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves kick off their series Monday night with Max Fried pitching against Taijuan Walker. Fried is struggling this season with a 6.55 ERA and a 4.95 FIP (all with an expected ERA of still 5.00), so the Mets should be able to make some noise offensively in this game.

Walker is off to a fantastic start to his Mets career, posting a 2.20 ERA and 2.94 FIP so far this season, but he is outperforming his career numbers significantly (3.73 career ERA and 4.15 career FIP) and expected ERA of 4.06, so he could be due for some regression.

The Braves rank third in expected wOBA, and the Mets are league-average there.

Our model loves the over, giving a 69.63% likelihood that there are more than 7.5 runs scored in this game, making it a great betting option for Monday.

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers

Over 8.0 Runs (-108): 2 Stars out of 5

Gerrit Cole will be starting for the New York Yankees in this one, which is resulting in a low over/under total given his dominance this season. Cole has a 1.37 ERA and league leading 1.14 FIP through 8 starts this season. His expected ERA of 1.60 ranks second among all qualified pitchers.

However, the Texas Rangers have scored the ninth-most runs scored per game in baseball, and they should be able to scratch a few runs off the Yankees in this one.

Jordan Lyles starts for the Rangers, and with his 6.63 ERA and 5.58 FIP, the Yankees, 6th in expected slugging, should have no problem scoring either.

Our model gives a 53.25% likelihood of the over hitting, making this a 2-star bet.