3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/19/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Zach Eflin Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Any Philadelphia Phillies game can be a bit of an adventure, but Zach Eflin somehow has a plus value at +106 to strike out seven or more Miami Marlins batters tonight at home.
Eflin has pitched pretty well for Philadelphia on the season with a 2-2 record, 3.86 ERA, and 1.169 WHIP. The hurler has 51 strikeouts in 51.1 innings pitched.
However, stamina could be a little bit of an issue, as he typically averages just over six innings per start. But over the past four starts, Eflin has struck out seven or more batters in every outing. His strikeout rate is up to 24.5% on the season.
Miami is still striking out at a rate of 26.9% overall and 28.2% on the road, which is a good bit above the league average of 24.0%.
With Eflin in a great matchup, take the over here and make some dollars.
Pete Alonso to Hit A Home Run (+440)
The New York Mets' slugger has only hit six home runs in 127 at-bats. That rate of 21.2 at-bats per home run is concerning but...
Even during the 2020 shortened season, Pete Alonso still was on pace to club 48 round-trippers. This year, that number is just about halved pace-wise. It is hard to believe that when all is said and done that the Mets' slugger will manage fewer than 30 home runs barring injury.
This has been one crazy year for several Mets players, but Alonso has a hard-hit rate of 52.7% and an elevated exit velocity of 94.1. He is even hitting the ball to the opposite field 4.3% more than his career-best rookie season.
In May, the first baseman has hit just one home run. That seems unbelievable in every way.
Alonso has a bullish projection of 0.29 home runs, according to our model, plus those +440 odds for such a good slugger is too hard to lay off of tonight.
Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+136)
Jack Flaherty appears to have a solid matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night, but the +136 odds to strike out fewer than seven batters has some intrigue.
While he is striking out batters at a 25.7% rate, Flaherty's rate there is down from his 29.4% average over the previous three seasons. It seems his home-run-to-fly-ball percentage has tanked this year to a lucky 6.4%, too. Is he living on some borrowed time? He may very well be.
The Pirates are also one of the more disciplined teams in the National League with a 23.1% strikeout rate. That dips to 21.8% in May. Pittsburgh may play some small ball and try to work the counts a bit more.
Our model projects the St. Louis Cardinals' pitcher to only go 5.8 innings yet fan 6.4 batters. That seems like the right number, but if we base it more on his actual K/9 rate, Flaherty looks like he will max out right at six punchouts. Take that under and the plus number!
