3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/25/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Lucas Giolito Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-106)
The Chicago White Sox' righty snapped out of a funk in a big way in his last start.
He pitched an eight-inning gem against the Minnesota Twins, striking out 11 and yielding just one earned run on 111 pitches. With the win, Lucas Giolito moved to 3-4 on the season. Other than the impressive strikeout numbers, Giolito also finally broke the 100-pitch mark.
For the campaign, his strikeout rate is 29.3% and his swinging-strike rate is 14.9%, both of which aren't that far off his marks from the past two seasons.
The St. Louis Cardinals aren't a great matchup for punchouts, but they're not a bad one, either. They have a 24.1% strikeout rate on the road, and with the Cards' .302 wOBA, Giolito should be able to pitch deep into the game.
We have Giolito getting 7.8 strikeouts today.
Nelson Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+230)
This pick is an oldie but a goodie.
Yes, Nelson Cruz is 40 years old, but the Minnesota Twins' slugger is still smashing balls. Cruz has 10 home runs on the season. He has hit a homer once every 14.5 at-bats (15.3 career clip), and his strikeout rate is just 20.1% (career 19.6%).
The Twins will see Baltimore Orioles righty Dean Kremer, who owns a 4.73 career SIERA. Righties have a 45.3% fly-ball rate off him in 2021.
Cruz has a solid projection of 0.22 home runs, according to our model. The +230 odds are fairly short, but this is a great spot for him. If you want a little more value, you can peep Miguel Sano at +250 to go deep.
Corey Kluber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
All Corey Kluber did in his last outing was throw a no-hitter with nine strikeouts against the Texas Rangers. That was no big deal.
He has now struck out 50 batters in 50 1/3 innings this season. While he is striking out batters at a 24.3% rate overall, Kluber's strikeout rate is 29.5% in May. He seems to be working his way back toward the old Corey Kluber.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a rather potent offense, but they are on the road in New York. Our model projects Kluber to go 5.8 innings and punch out 6.0 batters. But with Kluber heating up, I like the over on his strikeout prop as I think he'll get deeper into the game and have more chances to amass strikeouts.
