MLB

4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 5/27/21

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski May 27th, 2021
Andrew Vaughn should be an excellent source of value against lefty Bruce Zimmerman tonight. Which other lower-salaried plays should we target?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's five-game main slate, which locks at 8:10 PM Eastern.

Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox ($7,500)

On this extremely thin five-game slate, an argument can be made that Dylan Cease is the best pitching option, period -- not just the best value.

Only three pitchers -- Shohei Ohtani ($10,300), Alex Wood ($9,800), and Chris Bassitt ($9,100) -- have higher salaries than Cease tonight, and we can poke holes in all three of those options.

Cease draws the best matchup and has already showcased a mouth-watering ceiling this season. He'll be going up against the Baltimore Orioles, whose 83 wRC+ against righties is tied for fourth-worst in the league, according to FanGraphs. Baltimore's striking out at a 24.2% clip in the split, so the punchout potential is there for Cease. In two outings against the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds a couple of weeks ago, the right-hander rode 9 and 11 strikeouts to 58 and 61 FanDuel points, respectively.

Do keep an eye on this matchup for potential weather delays or postponements.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox ($2,600)

As long as the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Orioles looks like it'll be played, we'll want as much exposure to Chicago as we can muster.

According to numberFire's Matchup Heap Map, the White Sox' implied total of 4.95 is tops among the 10 teams on the slate. And you don't have to dig deep to understand why. The South Siders will be facing lefty Bruce Zimmermann, who has his fair share of struggles this season.

Through 38.2 innings in 2021, Zimmerman sports a 6.11 xERA and an underwhelming 17.3% strikeout rate. Oh, and he's also surrendering 2.09 dingers per nine innings.

Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has raked in a limited sample size versus southpaws. In 42 plate appearances with the platoon advantage this season, the rookie has posted a .324 average, .452 on base percentage, and a salivating .441 ISO. I'm firing him up without thinking twice.

Tommy Edman, 2B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals ($2,600)

The St. Louis Cardinals have a 4.73 implied total, which is right up there on this small slate. The Cards will be going up against Arizona Diamondbacks rookie Matt Peacock, who has produced mixed results to begin his career.

Through 22 innings, Peacock has a 4.91 ERA, though his 3.37 xERA and 3.51 SIERA imply that he's been pitching better than that. However, it's his split against lefties that makes the switch-hitting Tommy Edman an intriguing pick.

Peacock has gone up against 40 left-handers thus far, and he's managed just a 7.5% strikeout rate while allowing three dingers and a .359 wOBA.

Edman has five extra-base hits, eight RBI, and two steals over his last eight games, and he should be able to keep that form going tonight.

Josh Rojas, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,500)

The D-Backs are sandwiched between the White Sox and Cardinals with an implied total of 4.77, and they're facing an overachieving pitcher in Carlos Martinez.

While Martinez possesses an ERA of 4.14, his 5.22 SIERA and 5.44 xERA show that he's benefitted from plenty of luck. Martinez's BABIP is .233 at the moment, and it has never been lower than .284 in a season in his career. A correction is coming, and it could come as soon as tonight.

An Arizona stack is certainly a justifiable way to go, and Josh Rojas is a great option in a stack or as a one-off piece. The 26-year-old has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over a pretty long stretch now. In his last 32 games (123 plate appearances), Rojas is hitting at a .363 clip to go with a 1.017 OPS. During that stretch, he's garnered 17 extra-base hits, 24 runs scored, and 14 RBI. He's also added two steals for good measure.

Sign me up.