MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/1/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers
Tigers +1.5 (-144): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.0 (-104): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Tigers Moneyline (+150): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This is a game in which our model sees a ton of value tonight as we project the Detroit Tigers -- who are 1.5-run underdogs versus the Milwaukee Brewers -- to win outright.
We've got a pitching matchup of Matt Boyd against Eric Lauer, and it's a great spot for both as neither offense is very good. Of course, neither starting pitcher is all that good, either. But the edge goes to Boyd.
Lauer has a 4.62 SIERA for his career and is allowing a 41.3% hard-hit rate this year in a small sample.
Boyd, meanwhile, has a 4.37 SIERA this season while sporting a career-low 6.3% walk rate. Since the start of 2020 (118 frames), Boyd has allowed just a 29.2% hard-hit rate, so he may finally be over the hard-contact issues that plagued him for so long.
While he's improved in some areas, Boyd's strikeout rate has fallen to only 19.7% this season, so he's still far from elite. And once Boyd is out of the game, Milwaukee will get to take hacks against a Tigers' bullpen that sits fifth-worst in reliever SIERA (4.03).
All in all, we side with the Tigers, but there are enough question marks with both starting pitchers that we like the over, as well. We give the Tigers outright win odds of 50.2% and have them covering the runline 67.7% of the time. With the total, we give the over 58.4% odds to win out.
Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays
Over 8.0 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Toronto Blue Jays are heading back to Buffalo and leaving homer-happy TD Ballpark. Our numbers still point to the over in this one.
We're getting Robbie Ray facing Sandy Alcantara. There are reasons to be optimistic about each hurler -- both of whom have made strides in 2021 -- but there are also reasons to back these offenses.
With Ray, he's long gotten punchouts, but he's upped his swinging-strike rate to 15.7% while lowering his walk rate to 6.1%, both of which are career-best marks. Considering Ray struggled to a 17.9% walk rate last year (yes, 17.9%), we could be looking at some small-sample noise, though, and he's still giving up plenty of loud contact, leading to 2.42 dingers per nine. Plus, the Miami Marlins have some right-handed bats who do well with the platoon advantage (Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte, Adam Duvall and Garrett Cooper).
As for Alcantara, he's been pretty darn great and is posting career-best numbers across the board with a 3.73 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. The worry with him tonight is that the Jays' offense presents a rough matchup. Toronto led baseball with a .351 wOBA in May while putting up the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in that time (20.9%). This lineup is nasty.
We project a 5.22-4.69 win for the Blue Jays. That's 9.91 total runs, and we forecast the over to hit at a rate of 61.8%.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Over 8.5 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Braves Moneyline (-148): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
On paper, this is a solid pitching matchup between Stephen Strasburg and Max Fried. But Fried has struggled a bit the last year-plus while Strasburg is working his way back to full health.
After posting SIERAs of 3.77 and 3.83 across 2018 and 2019, Fried has recorded a 4.36 SIERA over 91 innings since the start of 2020. He's got a 22.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate in that time, and he's racked up just 14 punchouts across his last 19 innings. Fried is solid pitcher, but he hasn't become the ace it looked like he was going to be after his first two campaigns.
Strasburg was excellent in 2019, his last fully healthy season, but he's clearly not in his best form right now. He's thrown just 20 1/3 innings in 2021 and holds a 4.93 SIERA, 22.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate. A lot of his 2021 stats are skewed by one brutal outing, and Stras will likely end up with fine season-long numbers. But he's not 100% right now, walking five with nine strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings since coming off the injured list.
Another plus for the over is both of these 'pens. The Washington Nationals are 9th-worst in reliever SIERA (4.00) while the Atlanta Braves are 11th-worst (3.96). Strasburg has tossed 72 and 87 pitches in his two starts since coming back, so Washington's bullpen should have to shoulder a good amount of work tonight.
We like the Braves to win 5.71-4.34. That's 10.04 runs, and the best betting value in this game on the over, which we we expect to hit 63.1% of the time. There's also some value on Atlanta to win. The Braves are -148 on the moneyline, implying win odds of 59.7%. We give them a 66.5% chance to win.
