FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/1/21
Coming off the long weekend, we jump right into an enormous 14-game main slate, and while there are plenty of quality arms at our disposal, it's not filled with as many straight-up aces as you might expect. And between some top offenses in good spots and Coors Field, offense shouldn't be lacking tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Tyler Glasnow ($10,700): Glasnow's 36.2% strikeout rate easily leads the field on Tuesday's slate, and while the Yankees ought to be a difficult matchup on paper, that simply isn't how things have played out in 2021. New York's active roster owns a neutral 99 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching while striking out 25.0% of the time. Considering the prior success and talent of this lineup, I'm not sure we can count out the Yankees just yet, but there's no denying this hasn't been the matchup to fear as expected. A 2.83 SIERA backs up Glasnow's low ERA this season, and he's tallied double-digit punchouts in 6 of his 11 starts.
Robbie Ray ($9,100): Taking a glance at tonight's options, Aaron Nola is a logical choice after Glasnow, but this isn't a super exciting matchup for him against the Reds, and his 28.1% strikeout rate puts him in the same neighborhood as a plethora of other hurlers at lower salaries. In fact, it might surprise you that Ray's underlying numbers aren't all that different from Nola's, as he checks in with a 3.35 SIERA, 28.0% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate. This is quite the turnaround for Ray if he can maintain the low walk rate, something he's typically struggled with. Throw in a matchup against a below-average Marlins lineup with a 27.5% strikeout rate versus southpaws, and Ray is an enticing choice. Toronto starts playing their home games in Buffalo tonight, and while it's unclear exactly how it will play, it should be a significant step down for hitters compared to TD Ballpark.
Chris Bassitt ($9,300): There are some interesting value arms who I'll list below, but with many top stacks having mid-to-low salaries, you might not need to take on that risk in many builds. Bassitt has now produced 50-plus FanDuel points in three of his last four starts, and he draws a fantastic matchup versus Seattle, who has an 87 wRC+ and 25.2% strikeout rate against righties. Bassitt is now at a 3.47 SIERA and 26.1% strikeout rate, and unlike some others on the board, we don't have to worry about him issuing free passes at a squeaky clean 5.7% walk rate. Bassitt's overall strikeout rate may not be at the top of the list, but he's notched at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts.
Minnesota Twins: Bruce Zimmermann somehow escaped much damage against the lefty-killing White Sox in his last start, but all signs still point to attacking him with right-handed hitters, against whom he's posted a 4.81 xFIP, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 35.4% ground-ball rate. He's already coughed up eight dingers in the split, as well.
You won't need to break the bank to roster the right-handed pop in this lineup, including Nelson Cruz ($3,500), Josh Donaldson ($2,800), Mitch Garver ($3,100), and Miguel Sano ($2,900). Kyle Garlick ($2,300) could be batting leadoff with a southpaw on the mound, and Jorge Polanco ($2,600) offers up stacking flexibility by being eligible in both middle infielder slots.
Zimmermann frankly doesn't have a high strikeout rate against lefties (20.5%), either, so Alex Kirilloff ($3,300) remains worthy of inclusion.
Los Angeles Dodgers: It's almost comical that John Gant has a 1.81 ERA when you see that lurking behind it is a 5.62 SIERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, and 15.4% walk rate. Although Gant deserves some credit for a 59.5% ground-ball rate versus righties, and he's minimizing hard contact against both sides of the plate, the peripheral numbers ultimately suggest that a course correction is coming. He's also benefited from a fortuitous 85.0% strand rate and 3.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate that are well off the league averages.
Gant doesn't get grounders versus lefties (38.9%) and also has an ugly 5.68 xFIP in the split, so Max Muncy ($3,900), Cody Bellinger ($3,400), and Gavin Lux get a leg up, but Gant's poor strikeout and walk rates put all the usual righties in play like Mookie Betts ($3,800), Justin Turner ($3,000), and Will Smith ($2,800).
Texas Rangers and Colorado Rockies: We have a bit of a conundrum at Coors, as both teams have crazy low salaries outside of Adolis Garcia ($4,300), but neither one has an amazing pitching matchup. Despite a lackluster ERA, Dane Dunning has a solid 3.57 SIERA and 25.4% strikeout rate for Texas (a .356 BABIP suggests some bad luck), while German Marquez has been pitching better of late.
But if you're going to pick a side, the Rangers might be the way to go, as Marquez still has a shaky 12.2% walk rate, and against lefties, he's only striking out batters 20.1% of the time. He also has a 57.7% ground-ball rate in the split, which is hardly ideal, but it's still an opportunity for lefty power bats like Joey Gallo ($3,300), Willie Calhoun ($2,900), and Nate Lowe ($2,800) to make contact at Coors. The matchup isn't as well-suited for Garcia, but it's not like we're ignoring this Statcast page in the league's most hitter-friendly venue.
As for the Rockies, Dunning is usually held under 80 pitches, so they'll get their hacks against bullpen arms, so you could just roll with the savings and hope they find some Coors magic this evening. Ryan McMahon ($3,000) and C.J. Cron ($2,500) are arguably the top bets for power.