MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/4/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies
Oakland Moneyline (-126): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies tangle tonight at Coors, and our algorithm loves the A's in this one.
Oakland will give the ball to Frankie Montas, who is having a really nice season. Montas owns a 3.92 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. Coors is Coors, but Montas can do OK against a meh Rockies offense.
Colorado will start Jon Gray. After a rough 2020, Gray's numbers have bounced back a bit this season, but he's still carrying a 4.57 SIERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate. Lots of walks and not many punchouts -- that's a recipe for disaster at Coors.
The edge in offense lies with Oakland, too. The A's sit 11th in wOBA for the year (.315) while Colorado is 20th (.303).
We project the Athletics to win 7.04-5.31 and give them win odds of 65.8%. The -126 moneyline comes out to implied odds of just 55.8%, so we rate taking the A's to win outright as a three-star bet.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Reds Moneyline (+124): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Reds +1.5 (-170): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds are 1.5-run road underdogs today at the St. Louis Cardinals, but our model forecasts the Reds to win this game.
Cincy will send out Luis Castillo. After a few years of being an electric pitcher, Castillo is unexpectedly having an off year -- going 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA. His 4.53 SIERA paints a much better picture, and while there are some red flags in his profile (such as his 19.3% strikeout rate), there are also some good things (a 21.7% hard-hit rate and .371 BABIP that will surely regress).
All in all, Castillo isn't pitching like the stud we've come to know, but he's also clearly not as bad as his 7.22 ERA may have you believe. And he could excel against a Cards offense that is 22nd in wOBA (.301).
On the bump for St. Louis will be Kwang-Hyun Kim. Kim hasn't shown anything across his 76 career frames to suggest that he's all that good, sporting a 4.67 SIERA and 17.9% strikeout rate. He should have a rough go of it against a Cincy offense that checks in fifth in wOBA (.327).
The Reds are just +124 on the moneyline, but we project them to win 52.4% of the time. There's good value in taking them to win outright or to cover the runline, which we rate as three- and two-star wagers, respectively.
