FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 6/13/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate, which starts at 1:05 p.m. EST.
Pitching Breakdown
Shane Bieber ($12,000 on FanDuel) is out on his own as the slate's premier pitcher, and I'll be loading up on him.
Through 85 frames this season, Bieber has pitched to a 3.06 SIERA, 34.4% strikeout rate and 16.7% swinging-strike rate. The punchouts give him a monster floor/ceiling combination. He's scored at least 40 FanDuel points in 11 of his 13 starts, and he has three outings of 64-plus FanDuel points. The Seattle Mariners -- who hold a slate-low 3.03 implied total -- have a league-worst .285 wOBA with the third-highest strikeout rate (26.4%).
We project Bieber for 48.0 FanDuel points -- 13.7 more than anyone else.
Carlos Rodon ($10,500) is a fun alternative. He has a ceiling comparable to Bieber's, notching a pair of 61-point outings, but the floor isn't as high as Rodon has scored in the 20s twice in his past five games.
With a 37.1% strikeout rate and 16.2% swinging-strike rate, Rodon can get strikeouts. The issue with him is efficiency. He hasn't gone past the sixth inning since his no-no, which is a span of eight starts, despite tossing at least 90 pitches in all but one appearance in that time. A matchup with a Detroit Tigers team that sits third-worst in wOBA (.295) with the highest strikeout rate (27.9%) definitely helps, but it's not enough to push him past Bieber for me.
If you're passing on Rodon and Bieber, you need to find someone who has a good ceiling. That leads me to Robbie Ray ($9,900), although the matchup with the Boston Red Sox is a rough one.
Ray can get whiffs, generating a 31.6% strikeout rate and 16.4% swinging-strike rate. That's helped him score at least 38 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight starts, with outbursts of 52.0 and 58.9 in his past two. On the negative side, while Ray has majorly cut down on his walk rate this year (5.7%), he still allows a lot of loud contact, leading to him conceding 2.12 dingers per nine. That's scary with the Red Sox on tap, but Ray has the swing-and-miss stuff to shut down anyone if he's on.
Stacks to Target
Cincinnati Reds
Antonio Senzatela isn't good. He's got a 4.87 SIERA and 15.5% strikeout rate for his career, and he's posted a 4.51 SIERA and 14.8% strikeout rate in 2021. Both lefties (.335 wOBA) and righties (.356 wOBA) are roasting him this year, so we have a ton of flexibility when stacking the Cincinnati Reds, who have a 5.20 implied total.
Nick Castellanos ($4,000) and Jesse Winker ($4,500) are the belles of the ball in the Cincy lineup. Winker has bombarded righties for a .482 wOBA and 40.3% hard-hit rate this season and is an elite play on this slate.
After those two, the Reds don't have a bat with a salary above $2,900, so you can use them alongside Bieber. Tyler Naquin ($2,700) is one of my favorite plays on the slate. He's amassed a .360 wOBA against righties this season. Jonathan India ($2,700) has been leading off while Joey Votto ($2,900) is back healthy. Tyler Stephenson ($2,400) has been in the four hole some of late and boasts a .347 wOBA this year.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays (4.47 implied total) are in a great spot against lefty Bruce Zimmermann. With some gaudy implied totals on this slate, Tampa may not be all that popular.
Manuel Margot ($2,800) and Yandy Diaz ($2,700) hit 1-2 when Tampa saw a southpaw on Friday. While Margot is struggling overall this season, he's been better versus southpaws, producing a .324 wOBA in the split. Randy Arozarena ($3,700) owns a .443 slugging percentage against lefties this year. Michael Brosseau ($2,200) has been a lefty killer in his career, sporting a .357 wOBA in the split. Against left-handers a year ago, Brosseau finished with a .455 wOBA, 62.1% hard-hit rate, 51.7% fly-ball rate and four dongs in a small sample of 47 plate appearances.
Austin Meadows ($3,800) hit third Friday despite the lefty-lefty matchup. In that split this year, he's got a 59.1% fly-ball rate, but his wOBA is only .251, compared to .407 with the platoon advantage. While he may very well pop a tater at homer-happy Camden Yards, Meadows isn't someone I'll be using much of today.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have the slate's best implied total (5.42) for their home matchup against Martin Perez. Perez has just a 7.4% swinging-strike rate this season and gave up six runs in two frames against the Houston Astros last time out.
If you're allocating salary to Bieber, it will be tough to jam in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,300). You don't need me to tell you he's an elite play, so if you have the budget to make it work, plug in Vladdy.
But I'll mostly prioritize the other Jays because I definitely want Bieber. Bo Bichette ($3,600), Marcus Semien ($3,300), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800) and Randal Grichuk ($2,500) is a high-upside four-man stack that doesn't require you to take out a loan. Grichuk and Hernandez are stellar point-per-dollar options. Grichuk has mauled lefties to the tune of a .428 wOBA and 46.9% fly-ball rate in 2021 while Hernandez carries a .473 wOBA in a small sample in the split this year.
