MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/16/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Tyler Mahle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Tyler Mahle is even money against the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon on the road. For those wondering, Milwaukee might be even worse at home offensively.

Mahle is facing a team hitting just .205 at home. His last two trips on the road were to St. Louis and Chicago. He fanned eight batters in each start. Mahle has a robust 78 K's in 68-plus innings. Not only is his K/9 rate still above 10 (10.3), but it is gradually improving after a cool May. Most thought his 29.9% strikeout rate in 2020 was a bit of a fluke. He is still at 28% in 2021. Milwaukee's overall strikeout rate is 26.7%, which is a couple of percentage points above the National League average.

The Brewers' BABIP is just .260 and it gets progressively worse after a .302 first inning.

Our model projects Mahle for 5.86 strikeouts, but that is over 5.09 innings. Milwaukee likes to strike out and hits poorly at home. Take the over!

Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Injuries and some bad fundamentals have limited Christian Yelich in the early going this season. He is hitting just .245, which is way off from his last two full seasons where he hit .326 and .329 with 80 combined home runs.

This afternoon, Yelich has a decent matchup against Tyler Mahle. Mahle will get his strikeouts but he will leave pitches over the plate. The Cincinnati Reds starter gave up 22 and 25 home runs during 2018 and 2019, respectively. Even last year, the Brewers star was hitting a home run every 16.7 at-bats. This year, that number is over 35. His slugging percentage and OPS are just .387 and .796, respectively. The slugging is at career-low levels and the OPS is not far behind.

Yelich might get ahold of one and the +330 odds are reasonable to take a small-unit swipe at on Wednesday.

Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)

This is a number (+102) to only get juice on if it stays in the plus. Sandy Alcantara has good numbers for the Miami Marlins, and even though the Cardinals can be disciplined, they will strike out just enough.

The Miami starter averages a bit over six innings a start along with 8.5 K's per 9. Basically for every inning, he makes a batter whiff. Alcantara's metrics keep improving. His 23% strikeout rate is above the league average. His BABIP has fallen to .262 and his walk rate is just 7%. Add in the fact that his exit velocity is just 87.5 and this becomes even more intriguing.

In the last five starts, Alcantara has struck out six or more batters three times -- including six each in his previous two outings. Finally, his quality start percentage is well above average at 71%. That means he is more likely to go six-plus innings.

Alcantara could strike out six or more batters easily on Wednesday. The +102 is just icing on the cake to take.