4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 6/16/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate.

Aaron Civale, SP, Cleveland Indians ($9,000)

Among others, tonight's main slate features Jacob deGrom ($12,200), Gerrit Cole ($11,000), Zack Wheeler ($10,800), and Clayton Kershaw ($10,200) -- not too shabby. In other words, trying to save conserve some salary at pitcher will likely be a contrarian strategy, and Aaron Civale stands out among the non-big-four.

Civale is fresh off an outing in which he punched out 11 Seattle Mariners hitters in eight shutout innings while ceding just one hit, resulting in a fantasy output of 67 points. It was the third time in his last five starts that he'd garnered at least 49 FanDuel points.

The 26-year-old right-hander doesn't have particularly impressive peripherals this season, as his 20.1% strikeout rate and 4.17 SIERA won't wow anyone, but he should benefit from an excellent draw tonight with the Baltimore Orioles coming to town.

This season, the O's rank dead last with a .285 wOBA versus righties, and they're tied for second-worst with an 81 wRC+ in that split. Baltimore's 25% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers is the 12th-worst mark in the league.

Workload is of no concern here, as Civale has tossed at least 99 pitches in eight of his last nine efforts. He's worthy of consideration, especially in tournaments.

Myles Straw, OF, Houston Astros ($2,400)

According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, no team on tonight's main slate has a higher implied run total than the Houston Astros, who sit at 5.33 as of writing. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they're going up against Jordan Lyles and the Texas Rangers.

On the season, Lyles has a 5.37 ERA, which is backed up by a 5.47 expected ERA (xERA). Lyles has managed just a 19.3% strikeout rate, and he's ceding a mouth-watering 1.61 homers per nine innings. Those numbers won't play well against a Houston offense that ranks first in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

Since the start of last season, Lyles has been brutalized in same-sided matchups. The 306 righties he's faced during that stretch have posted a .301 average, .887 OPS, and 2.2 dongs per nine frames. His ERA in that split? 6.94. Wowza.

Myles Straw is one righty in this lineup you won't have to break the bank for. Over his last 23 games (90 plate appearances), Straw is hitting .329 while getting on base at a .389 clip. The 26-year-old has topped 9.0 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight contests, including four with 16-plus.

Gio Urshela, 3B, New York Yankees ($2,600)

The New York Yankees have the third-highest implied total on tonight's slate, per the Heat Map, and they should be in a solid spot to rack up some runs against Ross Stripling and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Through 47.2 innings this season, Stripling has pitched to the tune of a 4.91 ERA and 4.86 xERA. Keeping the ball in the park has been a huge issue for the 31-year-old, who has surrendered an average of 2.0 dingers per nine innings since the start of 2020.

When you isolate Stripling's numbers since the start of last season to only show right-handed hitters, it paints quite an ugly picture. Same-sided batters have mashed Stripling to the tune of a .327 average, .965 OPS, and 2.4 HR/9. Sheesh. The veteran's ERA in that split is 6.84, while his strikeout rate sits at just 17.8%.

Now, the Yankees are a top stack top to bottom, but Gio Urshela a top economical play to include in any builds. Urshela is hitting .304 to go with a .877 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances, and he has excelled in same-sided matchups since 2019. During that stretch, he's hitting .303 with a .851 OPS, .196 ISO, and 127 wRC+ versus right-handers.

Abraham Almonte, OF, Atlanta Braves ($2,200)

Aside from the Astros, the only other team with an implied total greater than 5.0 is the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta will be face righty Garrett Richards who, based on his underlying numbers, has overachieved this season. Richards currently sports a 4.09 real-life ERA, but his 4.81 SIERA and 5.26 xERA imply some serious good luck.

From 2018 through 2020, Richards' home run per fly ball rate was 16.4%, this season that number is sitting at just 8.2%. Seeing as Richards finds himself in the 22nd percentile or worse in xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage, I'd venture a guess that he won't sustain his current level of success, and that could start tonight.

One player who won't need a round-tripper to return solid value at his salary is Abraham Almonte. Since getting off to a slow start in his first five games in 2021, Almonte has posted a .993 OPS and more free passes (7) than punch-outs (6) over his last 33 plate appearances. That's resulted in at least 9.2 FanDuel points in six of his last nine games, including performances of 12.0, 15.7, and 18.7. Turn to him for some much-needed value tonight.