MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/17/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Orioles +1.5 (-160): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Orioles Moneyline (+128): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got a smaller slate this evening, and there's not much betting value, per our model. So I'm going to stretch into the afternoon games to dig into the contest that stands out the most.
Our projections are really into the Baltimore Orioles, who are 1.5-run underdogs to the Cleveland Indians. The O's are sending Jorge Lopez to the bump, and and Indians are countering with Eli Morgan. That's advantage Baltimore.
Morgan is a rookie with just 2 2/3 MLB innings to his name and who has just a 20.8% strikeout rate in 17 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. While Lopez is far from ace material, he's having the best season of his career, posting a 4.25 SIERA and 23.0% strikeout rate -- both of which are career-best numbers.
Both offenses are pretty meh, but the slight edge once again goes to the Orioles, who sit 21st in wOBA (.302) while the Indians are 24th (.297).
All in all, our model projects the underdog Orioles to win this game 53.1% of the time. We have the O's moneyline rated as a two-star bet and Baltimore +1.5 as a three-star wager, the lone three-star play of the day.
Over 7.5 (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The rest of the slate is pretty barren in terms of betting value as we have only one more bet that we give more than one star. It's the over in the Chicago Cubs-New York Mets series finale, which sees Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman square off.
Hendricks is good at what he does, and he's mostly a unicorn in today's game as an effective pitcher who doesn't get many punchouts. But his numbers are down across the board in 2021, with his 17.9% strikeout rate and 4.38 SIERA the worst clips of his career. He's still limiting hard contact fairly well, and his 22.9% homer-to-fly-ball rate -- which is nearly double his career average -- is fueling a rate of 2.29 dingers per nine that will surely come down. That's the deal with low-strikeout pitchers, though -- giving up a lot of balls in play leads to volatility.
Stroman is doing well in his first full season with the New York Mets. His 3.70 SIERA is his best mark since 2016 while his 21.5% strikeout rate and 12.0% swinging-strike rate are career-best numbers. But those overall numbers are propped up by a fantastic start to the year. Over March and April, Stroman put up a 2.73 FIP and 20.4% strikeout rate. In May, he finished with a 4.63 FIP and 18.9% strikeout rate -- a much more pedestrian output. He's up against a Cubs offense that is 12th in wOBA (.313).
We like backing the over as we forecast the Mets to win by a score of 4.55-3.86. That's 8.41 runs. The over is priced at +100, and we think it wins out 57.0% of the time.