3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/2/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Alek Manoah over 6.5 Strikeouts (+140)
Alek Manoah has shown strong strikeout potential since being called up to the majors and has a prop worth targeting.
Holding a 26.8% strikeout rate, Manoah has shown to be a strong pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, just as he was projected to be. He has six starts under his belt this season and has posted six strikeouts or more in three of those starts. Manoah will be matched up against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for the first time in his career and has a shot at pushing past his 6.5 strikeout prop.
The Rays come in with a 26.2% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is fourth-worst in the league. The Rays are lacking a bit of discipline at the plate and it puts Monoah in a good spot to cash in on the over 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+300)
Sometimes it's best to go with the easy answer and that is Pete Alonso to hit a home run tonight.
The New York Mets are on the road to take on the New York Yankees, giving them a positive park shift along the way. Alonso comes in with a very solid .277 ISO, 54.7% fly-ball rate, and a 32.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. That fly-ball rate is amazing since he is going to be at Yankee Stadium, presenting a clear opportunity for him to hit a home run.
We turn to Jordan Montgomery, who is on the mound for the Yankees tonight, and he comes in allowing 1.12 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season, along with a 39.1% fly-ball rate, and a 33.5% hard-contact rate. Eight of the nine home runs Montgomery has allowed have come via right-handed hitters this season.
Carlos Santana to Hit a Home Run (+500)
J.A. Happ is allowing too many home runs this season to right-handed hitters.
To be exact, Happ has allowed 13 home runs to righties this season, along with 2.05 HR/9, a 50.0% fly-ball rate, and a 36.2% hard-contact rate. Anytime you see numbers such as those, you should be actively targeting that pitcher since they are always in a spot to give up home runs.
This should put all right-handed hitters from the Kansas City Royals in a good spot tonight but we want to focus on Carlos Santana. He comes in with a .152 ISO, a 130 wRC+, and a 15.8% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. We'd like to see the power numbers a bit higher, but the matchup versus Happ is too juicy to pass up.
