MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/2/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Despite a full 15-game slate, our model doesn't see much betting value on the night. This is our lone three-star bet. We get a pitching matchup of Alex Wood and Zac Gallen, and we like the over at a line of 8.5.
Wood has been superb in his first campaign with the San Francisco Giants, pitching to a 3.70 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. He's been good, but he's carrying some severe home/road splits. At home, Wood is giving up a .287 wOBA and 0.82 dingers per nine while amassing a 27.7% strikeout rate. In his travels, Wood owns a 19.8% strikeout rate while permitting 1.65 homers per nine and a .336 wOBA.
Gallen started his season late due to injury, and while he's been solid (4.09 SIERA), his numbers are a tick or two worse across the board compared to what he did a season ago. The Arizona Diamondbacks' righty will be up against a Giants offense that sits sixth in wOBA against right-handers (.327). Also, Gallen hasn't thrown more than 84 pitches in any of his last three outings, and once he's gone, San Francisco will take their cuts against a D-Backs 'pen that is third-worst in reliever SIERA (4.39).
Our algorithm projects a 5.63-4.39 win for San Fran as we have the Giants' lineup putting up a big number. That's 10.02 total runs. We project the over to hit 62.8% of the time, and it's our top bet of the night.
Mets +1.5 (-142): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Mets Moneyline (+128): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Walker is having a really nice campaign for the New York Mets, sporting a 3.89 SIERA and 26.1% strikeout rate. He's coming off a June in which he recorded a 3.49 xFIP, 26.4% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. The New York Yankees' offense has been right around the league average against right-handers (.316 wOBA), so they're not a bad matchup.
Montgomery definitely has the easier matchup as the Mets rank 26th in wOBA versus southpaws (.295). But Montgomery has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts, and he closed June with only a 21.6% strikeout rate for the month.
In all, we have this as a very tight game, projecting the Yanks to win by a score of 4.51-4.48. That opens up value on the Mets, who are 1.5-run 'dogs and check in at +128 on the moneyline.