MLB

4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 7/7/21

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Jul 7th, 2021
Alex Wood has a solid matchup tonight and is worth considering on a slate that's far from loaded at pitcher. Which other value options should we look to roster?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate.

Alex Wood, SP, San Francisco Giants ($8,300)

Once you get past Zack Wheeler ($11,200) on tonight's slate, the pitcher pool is a complete and utter mess. The only other three pitchers with salaries of $9,000-plus each have tough matchups, and there are no obvious value spots. One value pitcher we can give some consideration to is Alex Wood.

This season, Wood sports a solid 3.89 ERA, which is backed up by a 3.60 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA. While it's not amazing, Wood's 25.5% strikeout rate is more than adequate. Those numbers should play well against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that's had its struggles recently.

Since the start of June, the Cardinals' 81 wRC+ ranks third-worst in the Majors, per FanGraphs. During that stretch, St. Louis hitters have posted the second-worst OPS (.645) and ISO (.124), as well as the worst wOBA (.284).

Wood has racked up at least 37 FanDuel points in 8 of his 14 starts in 2021, including 3 of his last 4. The veteran should be able to return some value tonight.

Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,300)

Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin enters tonight's matchup versus the San Diego Padres with a 5.56 ERA and 5.38 xERA, which should be a boon for their hitters.

Corbin is currently ceding a career-high 1.75 homers per nine innings while maintaining a career-low 18.6% strikeout rate, and that doesn't bode well for a lineup as potent as the Friars'. Right-handers, in particular, have smashed the 31-year-old, as they've managed a .304 average, .863 OPS, and 1.8 HR/9 against him since the start of 2020.

There's no shortage of options for a San Diego stack tonight, but Wil Myers stands out as a top economical play. Since 2018, Myers has pelted southpaws for a .841 OPS, .242 ISO, and 125 wRC+. That'll play.

Steven Duggar, OF, San Francisco Giants ($2,800)

It's never great when you have a 5.14 ERA and your peripherals suggest that it should be even worse than that -- but that's exactly the case with Cardinals righty Johan Oviedo.

Through 49 innings, Oviedo has pitched to the tune of a 5.56 xERA, 5.20 xFIP, and 5.35 SIERA. The 23-year-old has been especially generous to left-handed bats, as they've accrued a .297 average, .848 OPS, and .370 wOBA against him this campaign. Oviedo's 13.7% free pass rate in that split trumps his minuscule 11.1% K rate, and his 1.92 WHIP is flat out atrocious.

There are a number of San Francisco Giants hitters with salaries under $3,000 who would qualify as excellent value options, but Steven Duggar's form makes him stand out. Over his last 47 games (138 plate appearances), Duggar has accumulated 16 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 23 RBI, 26 runs, 6 steals, a .328 average, and a .971 OPS.

Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, San Francisco Giants ($2,400)

I mentioned above that there were a number of Giants hitters with salaries under $3,000 who would qualify as viable value plays, and Wilmer Flores certainly fits that bill.

While Oviedo has been much more generous to lefties, he hasn't exactly been Jacob deGrom against righties, garnering a 5.38 xFIP and surrendering 1.5 HR/9 in that split for his young career.

That brings us to the red-hot Wilmer Flores. Throughout his last 18 games (65 trips to the plate), Flores has amassed 9 extra-base hits (5 dongs), 15 runs, 12 RBI, a .328 average, a 1.040 OPS, and an equal number of walks and strikeouts (6). The 29-year-old's .203 ISO, .346 wOBA, and 122 wRC+ versus same-sided pitchers in 2021 should play well in this matchup.