3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/8/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jonathan Schoop to Hit a Home Run (+410)

The Detroit Tigers might not be the best offense, but they are going up against J.A. Happ, a pitcher you can certainly target tonight.

Happ is struggling with right-handed hitters this season to the tune of 2.21 homers per nine (HR/9), a 5.55 xFIP, 48.0% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate. Those are horrible numbers, and it should point you in the direction of Tigers' hitters.

I am turning to Jonathan Schoop, who has a solid .264 ISO, 138 wRC+, 46.7% hard-contact rate, and a 28.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) versus left-handed pitchers this season. Schoop is having a very solid year at the plate and needs a bit more recognition for the success he is having.

Franmil Reyes to Hit a Home Run (+260)

Franmil Reyes is back from his injury and is looking like he never missed a game.

Reyes was out for over a month with an oblique strain and has immediately made an impact on the Cleveland Indians' lineup with two home runs in his first four games back. That is what we are hoping to see from him tonight, as he is taking on Danny Duffy, who is due for some regression.

This season, Duffy is allowing only 0.67 HR/9 to right-handed hitters despite a 41.4% fly-ball rate in the split. He's doing it via a shockingly low 6.3% HR/FB ratio. The league average for HR/FB rate allowed to righty hitters this season is 13.9%. Jacob deGrom is a 7.1% versus righties. There is no way Duffy is going to maintain his current clip.

Also, a pitcher simply cannot give up that many fly balls -- 41.4% -- and so few of them go for home runs. Regression is going to hit Duffy like a ton of bricks, and that can start tonight with Reyes.

This season, Reyes is holding a .228 ISO, 108 wRC+, 35.7% hard-contact rate, and a 20.0% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers. He has always been a great power hitter, and with the underlying metrics Duffy is showing, it's a prime matchup for Reyes to keeping his hot streak going.

Tyler Mahle Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Tyler Mahle has been consistent with his strikeouts all year and has a matchup we want to attack.

Mahle is sporting a solid 29.9% strikeout rate this season, which is the third-highest on tonight's slate behind only Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. That's some pretty good company to be associated with, and when we are getting plus-money on his punchouts prop, it's a bet worth considering.

Mahle comes in with at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, and he's got eight-plus strikeouts in four of those seven starts.

He has a chance to repeat those performances tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, who come in with a 25.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-highest in the league. The Brewers' offense has certainly turned things around in recent weeks, but they are still giving up too many strikeouts to opposing pitchers.