MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/23/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
As you'd assume given the lowly 7.5-run total, we have two good pitchers going in this game -- Max Fried and Zack Wheeler. But our model likes the over.
Wheeler has been superb in 2021, putting up career-best marks in SIERA (3.05), strikeout rate (30.6%) and swinging-strike rate (12.6%). There are no flaws in his season-long profile. With that said, Wheeler has shown some cracks of late, allowing four runs in each of his last two outings.
Fried owns a 4.07 SIERA and 23.2% strikeout rate. We're still dealing with somewhat small samples for him, but in 28 innings away from home this year, Fried has been bombed for a .400 wOBA and 6.43 ERA. Fried is also giving up 1.02 homers per nine this season, which could be an issue at Citizens Bank Park, a stadium that was fifth-highest in home run factor in 2020.
We project a 4.69-4.46 win for the Phillies, and that amounts to 9.15 runs. Our algorithm has the over hitting 63.1% of the time.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Over 8.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Much like the above matchup, we have two good hurlers going in Gerrit Cole and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Cole was -- and likely still is -- the face of all the sticky stuff issues, but he has been really good over his last two games, both of which were tough matchups. Over two starts and 15 innings versus the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros, Cole has permitted one earned run while punching out 23.
But that is a stark contrast to his two starts before those in which he allowed nine earned runs in 8 1/3 total frames against the Red Sox and New York Mets. The outing against Boston came at Fenway -- where today's game is -- and resulted in five earned runs (and three jacks) in five innings. We project Cole to give up 1.23 homers today, the third-most on the slate.
As for Rodriguez, his 3.46 SIERA looks much better than his 5.19 ERA. But he's got a big-time homer issue, conceding 1.32 per nine this year, and that figures to be a problem in a Fenway date with a New York Yankees lineup that will likely be full of righties.
Our model forecasts the Yanks to be the driving force behind getting us to the over, projecting New York for 5.14 runs. We have Boston scoring 4.84 runs. That's 9.98 runs, and we think the over wins out 62.4% of the time.
