3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/26/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Eric Haase To Hit a Home Run (+210)
The Detroit Tigers are good?
Well, they might not be "good", but they are playing solid baseball right now and continue to have solid matchups for their hitters to attack. Tonight, they are going up against Michael Pineda, who is allowing 1.02 HR/9, a 32.0% fly-ball rate, and a 33.7% hard-contact rate. Those numbers are a bit lower than where I'd normally target but we have to factor in some other things.
Pineda may not give up a massive amount of home runs but he also doesn't pitch too deep into games. The Minnesota Twins' bullpen comes in allowing 1.37 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, which is the 10th-worst in the league, along with a 36.4% fly-ball rate and a 32.5% hard-contact rate, both of which are in the bottom half of the league. Even if Eric Haase doesn't get it done versus Pineda, he will continue to have a solid matchup as the game goes on.
Speaking of Haase, he comes in with a .217 ISO, a 46.5% fly-ball rate, and a 35.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. His power numbers only go up versus lefty pitchers, so it doesn't matter who the Twins bring out of the bullpen, Haase is in a fantastic spot.
Luis Garcia Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
With a strikeout prop of only 6.5, Luis Garcia is in a great spot to hit the over tonight.
Garcia comes in with a very solid 28.5% strikeout rate, a 3.66 SIERA, and has posted six strikeouts or more in 6 of his last 10 starts. He has been consistent all season and should be able to keep that going tonight against the Seattle Mariners. This season, the Mariners hold a 26.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.
With very little juice on the over, Garcia's strikeout prop should be considered one of the best bets on tonight's slate. Garcia should have no issues against this weak Mariners lineup.
Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Toronto Blue Jays are primed to hit multiple home runs tonight.
The Jays are on the road to take on Nick Pivetta, who has given up more and more home runs as the season has gone on. Through Pivetta's first 10 starts this year, he allowed 9 home runs. Through his next 9 starts, he allowed 11 home runs. His fly-ball rate has increased throughout the season, his HR/FB ratio has increased, etc etc. Pivetta is allowing 1.28 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on the year, a 43.6% fly-ball rate, and a 33.1% hard-contact rate. Those rates are unlikely to improve as the rest of the year plays out.
This is why I'll look to Marcus Semien, who has a .260 ISO, a 138 wRC+, a 45.3% fly-ball rate, and a 37.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Fenway Park is a great hitter's park and it should put Semien and the Blue Jays in a great spot tonight.
