3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/27/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jesse Winker To Hit a Home Run (+310)
It's not if the Cincinnati Reds will hit home runs tonight; it's how many will they hit?
That is because they are at Wrigley Field, where it's hot and the wind is blowing out toward center field, creating an absolutely fantastic hitting environment. They will be up against Adbert Alzolay, who is struggling massively this season versus left-handed hitters and is truly a pitcher you should look to target anytime he is on the slate. Alzolay comes in allowing a whopping 3.69 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season, along with a 4.91 xFIP, a low 20 1% strikeout rate, a 40.8% fly-ball rate, and a 38.5% hard-contact rate.
Those are horrible numbers for a pitcher and exactly the type we like to see when we are looking for the opposing team to have home run upside. This leads us to Jesse Winker, who comes in with a big .281 ISO, a 173 wRC+, a 34.2% fly-ball rate, a 35.5% hard-contact rate, and a 22.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. The stars are seemingly aligning tonight for Winker and his home run prop.
Mitch Garver To Hit a Home Run (+270)
The Minnesota Twins are another team primed for plenty of home runs tonight.
We have a full slate of games tonight and there are plenty of bad pitchers who will be giving up home runs but Tyler Alexander has caught my eye. This season he is allowing 1.88 HR/9, a 45.5% fly-ball rate, and a 38.4% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Now, you could make the argument that he has only pitched 46.2 innings this season and it's a small sample size. OK, I get that. If we glance at his MLB career numbers since 2019, they are even worse, so it actually doesn't matter. He is bad this year versus righties, and he's been bad in his entire career versus righties.
This is where I'll turn to Mitch Garver, who comes in with a massive 53.8% fly-ball rate, a 41.0% hard-contact rate, and a .290 ISO. The combination of power and fly balls put Garver in an unbelievably good matchup tonight to hit a home run.
Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Shane McClanahan has shown a strong level of consistency this season and his strikeout prop is worth considering tonight.
In his last 10 starts, McClanahan has posted five strikeouts or more seven times. Yes, five strikeouts in all of those starts are nice but it's less than the 6.5 strikeout prop he has tonight, so why do I bring it up? Well, we have to look at some of those games, since he only pitched 3.1, 3.0, and 5.0 innings in some of those outings. McClanahan was posting big strikeout numbers despite not going deep into the game. Essentially, I'm saying that the results McClanahan has been showing are LOWER than he truly should be posting.
His 28.6% strikeout rate this season is awesome and now that he has gone 5.0 innings or more in four of his last five starts, so we should see the overall volume of strikeouts increase. McClanahan is up against the New York Yankees, who come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, which is 13th-worst in the league.
