3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Tuesday 8/3/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Adam Duvall, OF, Atlanta Braves ($3,200)
If there's one thing Adam Duvall is known for, it's his ability to elevate the ball.
Duvall comes in with a crazy 51.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-best in the entire MLB. When a hitter can elevate the ball that much, he will always be in a spot to potentially hit a home run, leading to plenty of fantasy points. On top of that fly-ball rate, Duvall is also holding a 37.0% hard-contact rate and a .207 ISO in this split. Sure, Duvall strikes 35.5% of the time, so it can be a bit of all or nothing from him.
We look to the other side to see Duvall going up against Jon Lester, who is allowing 2.09 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season from a 35.1% fly-ball rate and an 18.3% HR/FB ratio. This gives Duvall some serious home run potential and he shouldn't be too popular considering the Atlanta Braves have a 4.67 implied run total, which is the 10th-highest on the slate.
Johnny Cueto, P, San Francisco Giants ($8,100)
Johnny Cueto may not seem like the most exciting pitching option but he has a great matchup.
The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't a good team, there's no other way to put it. With Cueto's salary being so affordable, we should be looking at him as a strong point-per-dollar option who could also be under-the-radar. That is an awesome combo to have for tournament lineups since you have the salary to spend up for hitting stacks. Cueto comes in with a modest 21.1% strikeout rate but has a low 4.9% walk rate, a 4.12 SIERA, and a big 60.0% medium-contact rate. This is what has helped Cueto allow three earned runs or fewer in 7 of his last 10 starts.
The Diamondbacks come in with an 81 wRC+ (29th in the league), a .135 ISO (29th), a 24.3% strikeout rate (12th), and a 35.7% fly-ball rate (20th) versus right-handed pitchers. Arizona doesn't appear to be a team that offers too much threat to Cueto tonight.
Brad Miller, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,200)
This might seem like a bit of an off-the-board pick but Brad Miller is in a good spot tonight.
Miller comes in with a surprising .211 ISO, a 40.6% fly-ball rate, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Those are very strong numbers for a player who is barely above the minimum salary and one you could be getting at very low rostership rates tonight since the Philadelphia Phillies have a 4.46 implied run total, which is the 14th-highest the slate.
Miller will be taking on Patrick Corbin, who is allowing far too many home runs this season and there is no reason we shouldn't be looking to stack against him. Corbin allows 2.16 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year, along with a 34.9% hard-contact rate, and a 21.7% HR/FB ratio. There's no doubt Corbin has been struggling this season and I don't anticipate that changing tonight.
