3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/3/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Eric Haase To Hit a Home Run (+360)
The 28-year-old rookie, Haase, had nine home runs in July and has a great matchup versus Garrett Richards to get off to a hot start in August. This season, Richards is allowing 1.65 HR/9, a 35.9% fly-ball rate, and a 37.9% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. In the month of July alone, Richards has seen his fly-ball rate jump up to 44.2% in this split, which has led to him allowing 3.3 HR/9 to righties this month. Of course, that's a smaller sample size, but as the season has gone on, Richards has struggled more and more.
We turn to Haase, who is boasting a .246 ISO, a 45.9% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Haase saw his ISO jump to .271 in July against right-handed pitchers, along with a 46.3% hard-contact rate. We have a hitter who is surging and now gets to face a pitcher who is struggling. It's a match made in home run heaven.
Tyler Mahle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)
When it comes to strikeout rates on tonight's slate, Tyler Mahle is among the best.
With a 28.2% strikeout rate, Mahle is behind only Zack Wheeler (29.8%) and Dylan Cease (29.3%) for the highest strikeout rate among qualified pitchers. Mahle comes in with seven strikeouts or more in 6 of his last 10 starts, showing a strong level of consistency you can trust. Mahle faced the Minnesota Twins earlier this season and was able to post eight strikeouts in only four innings of work.
He will be taking on the Twins again tonight, who are currently holding a 22.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 22nd in the league. While that might not be the highest strikeout rate, at nearly even money, we are banking on Mahle's strikeout potential to rise to the top in a matchup he had no issues with earlier this year.
Justin Upton To Hit a Home Run (+280)
Justin Upton to hit a home run? What year is it?
Yes, in the year 2021 I'm voluntarily writing about Justin Upton to hit a home run tonight. That is because Upton is still carrying strong metrics versus right-handed pitchers despite it being his 13th year in the MLB. Upton comes in with a .195 ISO, a very strong 43.1% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate versus righties.
Upton will be facing Jordan Lyles, who is a pitcher I simply love to attack for potential home runs anytime he is on the slate. Lyles is allowing a whopping 2.39 HR/9, a 40.5% fly-ball rate, a 38.2% hard-contact rate, and a 21.2% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters this season. Each one of those numbers is bad on its own, and collectively, they are terrible. To say the Los Angeles Angels hitters are in a good spot tonight versus Lyles would be an understatement.